Latin America Economics Focus Will Argentina default? One point being overlooked in the debate surrounding the sustainability of Argentine sovereign debt is that there is a significant risk of default even if an investor-friendly candidate wins October’s... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil’s central bank set to keep rates low for longer Brazil’s new central bank governor, Roberto Campos Neto, inherits a benign inflation environment and we now think the Selic rate will be left unchanged at its current historic low of 6.5% until at... 19th March 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: a primer on pension reform Rumours about the shape of the Brazilian government’s pension reform that will be presented to congress on Wednesday suggest that it is ambitious and would, if implemented in full, stabilise the... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexican interest rates to fall by more than most expect Mexican inflation has been stubbornly above Banxico’s 2-4% target over the past two years, but we think it will fall back within this range by year-end. And with the Fed’s tightening cycle near its... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How will Venezuela exit hyperinflation? In the 16 cases of hyperinflation since 1980, countries have either a) implemented “shock therapy”, b) dollarised or c) adopted a currency board in order to stabilise the economy, all of which seem... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How bad is Brazil’s fiscal problem? President-elect Jair Bolsonaro has touched on all the right areas needed to get Brazil’s public debt ratio off its current unsustainable trajectory. In this Focus, we answer five questions in order to... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus A look ahead to Brazil’s election Brazil’s presidential race is still very open, but the scale of the challenge the victor will face means that even a market-friendly president won’t be able to stabilise the public finances and boost... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What would an Amlo presidency mean for Mexico? A victory for left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) in Mexico’s presidential election on Sunday appears to be priced in to markets. But a strong showing for his Morena coalition in... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Assessing Lat Am’s vulnerability to US protectionism Mexico, as well as several smaller countries in Central America (including Nicaragua, Honduras and Costa Rica), are most vulnerable to a general escalation in US protectionism. But individual sectors... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Life still left in Brazil’s recovery Brazil’s economy has been losing momentum for several quarters, but it’s premature to think that the recovery is now over. Indeed, the conditions seem to be in place for growth to strengthen again in... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What next for the Andes? We expect recoveries in Colombia, Chile and Peru to continue over the coming years as investment strengthens and consumer spending picks up. There are downside risks to the outlook – namely large... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Picking apart the economic costs of Brazil’s latest crisis The economic surveys in Brazil have fallen since the crisis that has engulfed President Temer’s administration erupted in May, but the hard activity data do not yet point to a sharp downturn in the... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Is the worst over for Latin America? Following two years of recession, Latin America’s economy has shown signs of recovery since the start of this year. And, while political problems are never far from the headlines, we expect economic... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina: rate cuts coming, but easing to be gradual The sharp drop in Argentine inflation to an 18-month low in May is likely to prompt the central bank to shift into easing mode over the coming quarters. But with core inflation likely to be slow to... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: export-driven recovery looking good…for now Brazilian export growth looks set to rebound this year as the impact of last year’s drought on agricultural shipments fades. This should help to finally pull the economy out of recession. That being... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Can Macri fix Argentina’s fiscal mess? With legislative elections due in October, progress in narrowing Argentina’s bulging budget deficit will be slow this year and we expect only a modest fiscal squeeze in 2018-19. More fundamentally... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
