Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (May) The collapse in Brazilian inflation to a fresh decade low of 3.6% y/y in May paves the way for further, albeit smaller, cuts in the Selic interest rate in the coming quarters. Despite the ongoing... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (May) Mexican inflation rose further above target in May and, while we expect another 25bp hike in the central bank’s policy interest rate later this month, both inflation and interest rates are probably... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile IMACEC (Apr.) Having contracted in February and March on the back of a copper mine strike, Chilean economic activity returned to growth in April and we think the economy should continue to recover over the coming... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.6% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production was better than expected, but only partly reverses the steep drop recorded in March. As things stand, it is difficult to envisage the sector... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1) The 1.0% q/q rise in first quarter GDP means that, after having contracted for eight consecutive quarters, Brazil has finally exited recession. While our GDP forecast for this year is still above... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) Mexican inflation continued its upward trend in the first half of May, hitting an eight-year high of 6.2% y/y, but the recent stability of the peso means it probably doesn’t have much further to rise. 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q1) The sharp slowdown in Colombian GDP growth in Q1 was due in part to a 3%-pt hike in VAT at the start of this year. We expect Q1 to be the bottom, but the risks to our below-consensus GDP growth... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q1) Chile’s economy narrowly avoided entering a technical recession in Q1 and, while growth has all but ground to a halt in recent quarters, there are tentative signs of a recovery. Meanwhile, the current... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Mar.) March activity data confirmed that Peru’s economy slowed sharply in Q1 and, while growth should pick up over the coming months as the temporary drag from severe floods eases, the weak start to the... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) Mexican industrial production continued to broadly stagnate in March, but this is still far from the collapse that the survey data are pointing to. Indeed, if anything, today’s data suggest that the... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Apr.) The collapse in Brazilian inflation to a decade-low of 4.1% y/y in April paves the way for another 100bp cut in the Selic rate (to 10.25%) at the next COPOM meeting on 31 st May. 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) Mexican inflation continued to rise in April and, with inflation expectations starting to tick up again, we think the central bank is likely to opt for another 25bp hike in its policy interest rate... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Apr.) Chilean inflation remained weak at 2.7% y/y in April, but even so, with the economy finally showing tentative signs of picking up, the central bank is likely to pause its easing cycle at next week’s... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile IMACEC (Mar.) Chilean economic activity data for March suggest that the economy avoided entering a technical recession in Q1, albeit only by the smallest of margins. And there are tentative signs that the economy... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s industrial production data from Brazil were ugly, but according to our estimates the sector still made a positive contribution to GDP growth over Q1 as a whole. 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) First quarter GDP data from Mexico confirmed what we have long suspected – that the survey data have been overstating the weakness in the real economy. In fact, the economy grew at a reasonably... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
