Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further drop in Mexican inflation in February was encouraging, and the breakdown contains signs of broad disinflation pressures – core inflation posted its biggest decline in over three years. The... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan.) The fall in Brazilian industrial production in January was largely payback for an especially strong outturn in December – we still expect the industrial recovery to continue over the coming quarters. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4) The weaker-than-expected increase in Brazilian GDP in Q4 was due in large part to a sizeable drag from net trade. This was partly due to the unwinding of an earlier jump in agricultural exports, but... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb.) Brazilian inflation was unchanged in the first half of February, but we still expect the headline rate to drift up over the course of this year. Our sense is that this should prevent Copom from... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.) The pause in the decline in Mexican headline inflation in the first half of February masks the fact that core inflation posted its biggest decline in over three years. The central bank is likely to... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4) Colombian GDP growth slowed from 2.3% y/y in Q3 to a weaker-than-expected 1.6% y/y in Q4, but we still expect the economy to recover over the course of this year. 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) Mexican industrial production returned to growth in December, on the back of a (delayed) rebound in construction activity following September’s earthquakes. However, the impact of the earthquakes is... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharp fall in Mexican inflation last month is likely to be the start of a downwards trend, and we expect headline inflation to fall back into the central bank’s target range by Q3. The consensus... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The weaker-than-expected increase in Brazilian consumer prices last month, of 2.9% y/y, unchanged from December, reinforces our view that the rise in inflation over the course of this year will be... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.) The 1.0% q/q rebound in Mexican GDP in Q4 was larger than expected but needs to be viewed alongside the -0.3% q/q contraction in Q3. While a stronger US economy will provide a prop to growth this year... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The sharp fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of January is likely to be the start of a downwards trend, and we expect headline inflation to fall back into the central bank’s target range by... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.) The modest rise in Brazilian inflation in the first half of January, which was slightly weaker than expectations, is unlikely to alter the thinking of COPOM. Assuming that the real holds up over the... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 3.0% y/y last month leaves it right at the lower bound of the central bank’s 4.5±1.5% target range, which should provide room for a further 25bp cut in the Selic... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Mexican inflation to a fresh 18-year high of 6.8% y/y in December will probably lead to further calls for Banxico to raise rates again at its policy meeting on 9th February. While another... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Chilean inflation in the final month of 2017, to 2.3% y/y, was driven largely by an increase in food inflation – core inflation rose only marginally and remained below the central bank’s... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s 0.2% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production was the third consecutive monthly expansion, and the latest survey data indicate that conditions in the sector should continue to improve... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
