Japan Economics Weekly Restrictions may not last long, key Shunto approaching With restrictions this week expanded to cover most of Japan’s economy, and surging infections already starting to cause staff shortages in some industries, GDP is only likely to tread water this... 21st January 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strict isolation rules could cause severe shortages While we think Japan’s economy entered 2022 just above its pre-pandemic level, consumer spending will probably be knocked back this quarter by light-touch restrictions which are likely to be reimposed... 14th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery in industrial activity will run out of steam Japan’s car industry has rebounded quickly from the disruptions caused by Delta waves across South-East Asia a few months ago. But amidst persistent supply shortages, output hasn’t quite returned to... 7th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rapid manufacturing rebound, boosters, yen forecast The rapid recovery in car exports in November probably has further to run and continued strength into next year poses upside risks to our forecast for a cumulative 3.3% rise in Japanese exports across... 17th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Wage-boosting tax breaks, Toyota setback The government’s new plan to offer firms more generous tax deductions for raising wages is unlikely to lift wage growth to 3% as targeted by PM Kishida. But with smaller firms being offered corporate... 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Omicron restrictions wouldn’t jolt BoJ into action Even if Omicron proves more transmissible than Delta, its impact on Japan’s economy could vary substantially depending on how deadly it is, how well it evades vaccines, and PM Kishida’s appetite for... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government seeks to revive soggy chip industry The breakdown of PM Kishida’s new supplementary budget released today showed that ¥600 billion has been allocated to reviving semiconductor manufacturing in Japan. The centrepiece of the plan is a new... 26th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stimulus package large but smaller than reported The stimulus unveiled today by PM Kishida’s new cabinet was broadly in line with expectations despite inflated headline figures quoted in media reports which we think are padded with loans and... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly More cash handouts on the way The latest survey data suggest that consumer spending is still struggling to gain momentum even as the bulk of the population are fully vaccinated and virus cases have plunged. However, with car sales... 12th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly PM Kishida’s plans to raise wages sound familiar PM Kishida’s plans to lift wage growth largely follow the Abenomics blueprint of tax incentives, targeted pay hikes in sectors facing severe labour shortages and rapid minimum wage hikes. A tax on... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Services recovering, industry still ailing This week’s activity data provided further evidence that supply shortages in the car sector are holding back the recovery. We expect car production to rebound this quarter as factories in Southeast... 29th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Carmakers will struggle even after shortages abate The disruptions to supply chains from Delta outbreaks across Southeast Asia that resulted in another big drop in car exports in September will ease soon. However, carmakers are responding with lower... 22nd October 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Kishida dissolves parliament, firms look to seniors The ruling LDP appears to be bracing for a slimming down of its lower house majority in the general election that will take place on 31 st October. That would make tangible structural reform progress... 15th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Southeast Asia shortages unlikely to derail recovery The huge fall in car sales in September suggests that shortages of parts from Southeast Asia are starting to hamper goods consumption. And while factories in important suppliers such as Vietnam and... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Supply shortages set to hold back manufacturers Production of motor vehicles and electronics fell sharply in August and is well below pre-pandemic levels. This isn’t mainly due to weaker demand, which has moderated but remains healthy. Instead, it... 1st October 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly States of emergency may end before LDP election Reports this week that PM Suga is keen to end emergency declarations before leaving office on Wednesday are good for our view that output will rebound strongly to above pre-virus levels in Q4... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
