Japan Economics Weekly Stealth intervention would be costly With the yen falling to a 24-year low against the dollar, the government this week requested exchange rate quotes from the banks which some see as a precursor to intervention. Apart from the Ministry... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly No tightening even if yen stays near 145 Policymakers ratcheted up their verbal intervention as the yen weakened this week but the bar to more direct action is high. We don’t think the Bank of Japan would be too concerned if the yen remained... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Labour force could be over the hill already The ongoing decline in the size of Japan’s adult population won’t look quite so worrying when the recent revival of immigration starts to be factored in. But the underlying trend has worsened over the... 2nd September 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Kishida eager to revive nuclear energy August’s Tokyo CPI showed a further jump in electricity prices. Against this backdrop, PM Kishida announced that he wants to restart more nuclear reactors and build new ones, but it remains unclear... 26th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Short term productivity outlook is bleak Already sluggish productivity growth has slowed even further since the pandemic, a disappointing result since Japan’s level of productivity remains much lower than in any other G7 economy. Two key... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Demographic woes persist, tourists waiting at the gate An exodus of long-term migrants contributed to the 0.6% fall in Japan’s population last year but with border controls loosened since March net migration is bouncing back strongly. Even so, we still... 12th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly The rise and fall of Japan's energy imports Japan is still struggling to wean itself off fossil fuels despite a new government push to boost solar power. However, the country has become more energy efficient over the past decade, which has... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan won’t widen tolerance band any further Long-term bond yields have dropped back in recent weeks which meant that the Bank of Japan had to work less hard to defend its 10-year yield target. Given that we no longer expect US 10-year Treasury... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly New Covid wave, more balanced inflation outlook The government so far hasn’t responded to the surge in new virus cases to a record high with any restrictions, but the slowdown in mobility suggests that consumer spending will soften regardless... 22nd July 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Prospect of smaller budget deficits adds to BoJ’s woes With tax revenues soaring and pandemic-related expenditure set to be phased out, the budget deficit will shrink sharply over coming years. However, the resulting decline in bond issuance will make it... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Reshoring production bodes ill for profits The surge in firms’ capital spendings plan for the fiscal year that started in April to around a record high could be due to firms finally undertaking projects that have been held back by supply... 8th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery will continue to disappoint The slump in industrial output and the stagnation in real retail sales in May has prompted us to lower our estimate of Q2 GDP growth. While the easing of the lockdown in Shanghai will contribute to a... 1st July 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Respite for BoJ doesn’t weaken case for a policy tweak Pressure on the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control framework eased this week. On the campaign trail for the Upper House election, where inflation has emerged as a key concern, Prime Minister Kishida... 24th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen to weaken further, domestic demand picking up While the Bank of Japan was clearly in no mood today to give any ground to the bond traders testing the ceiling of Yield Curve Control, it would be even less keen to effectively shut down the JGB... 17th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Jump in working hours points to strong Q2 rebound The recent jump in overtime hours largely reflects severe labour shortages at hotels and restaurants rather than any surge in demand. However, with overall working hours on track for a strong rise... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rising prices won’t prevent solid rebound in Q2 The renewed drop in industrial production and the weakness in retail sales volumes in April has raised concerns that Japan’s recovery will continue to disappoint. However, with consumer prices rising... 3rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
