Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan keeps its options open The Bank of Japan’s decision to bring forward its November Policy Board meeting to the day after Wednesday’s FOMC raises the intriguing possibility that the Bank intends to respond to any additional... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the economy already rolling over into recession? The surge in the yen and recent weakness in the export-oriented manufacturing sector have raised concerns that Japan may already be sliding back into recession. In contrast, our view is that the near... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A glimmer of hope The seemingly relentless appreciation of the yen against the dollar has not caused quite the degree of panic in Japan’s equity markets that might have been anticipated. In part this is because the yen... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is China to blame for the strong yen? China may have bought an unusually large quantity of Japanese bonds over the summer, but its purchases were too small to explain the strength of the yen or falls in government bond yields. In any case... 11th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan set to disappoint markets This week's focus will be on the Bank of Japan's Policy Board meeting, which concludes on Tuesday. Hopes of further monetary easing are high, but we see two risks. The first is simply that the Bank... 4th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Wave of data should support recovery hopes The coming week is packed with key data, the bulk of which should be relatively upbeat. The markets will focus on the Tankan, but the monthly business surveys for September should also be reassuring... 27th September 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will intervention work? There has been much fruitless speculation over whether the Japanese authorities want the yen to fall back sharply or just want to see it stabilise. We do not believe there is any such “grand plan”... 20th September 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong start to Q3, turbulence ahead The revised data for Q2 GDP, released on Friday, confirmed that last quarter’s economic performance was not nearly as poor as first appeared. There are clouds on the horizon, but the evidence so far... 13th September 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan's stock market should outperform soon The Bank of Japan’s recent decision to loosen monetary policy further has had little impact on Japan’s asset markets and the yen, which have continued to take their cue from developments overseas. We... 6th September 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Political and fiscal risks to help undermine the yen Japanese government officials have stepped up their expressions of concern about the strength of the yen, but they appear to favour additional fiscal measures and further easing from the Bank of Japan... 30th August 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growth to pick up again in H2 Looking on the bright side, the fact that GDP was unexpectedly weak in the second quarter should at least have prepared the way for growth to pick up again in the second half of the year. But the... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How uncompetitive is the yen? Fears about the impact the rising yen will have on exporters are overdone. Deflation has ensured that Japan remains internationally competitive. The bigger threat is slowing demand in overseas markets... 16th August 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What can the Bank of Japan do? The yen has continued to strengthen, while the economic outlook seems to be weakening. But the Bank of Japan is probably not in a position to do much in response on either front at its meeting this... 9th August 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growth slowing, not collapsing The rush of data at the end of July has added to doubts about the durability of the economic recovery, with sentiment in the equity market not helped either by further strength in the yen. However... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly On the yen again The Bank of Japan’s apparently relaxed attitude to the strength of the yen can largely be explained by the fact that there is very little that the central bank can do about it anyway. The currency’s... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would an inflation target help? The success of “Your Party” in the Upper House elections has put the idea of an explicit inflation target for the Bank of Japan back on the policy agenda. A decent case can be made for at least a... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
