Japan Economics Weekly New budget, same old problems The submission to the Diet of a second supplementary budget in early July is not expected to have a large impact. The macroeconomic effects of the additional budget are likely to be small, and it is... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank lending on course to rise again Overall bank lending is likely to increase over the rest of the year, but this would not necessarily be a sign of underlying economic strength. We expect business loan demand to rise as the weak... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Auto sector moving up a gear Japan’s automotive industry was, as we know, hit extremely hard by the March earthquake. Domestic demand collapsed while overseas sales shrank due to a shortage of supply. But both these constraints... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Labour data still to feel full impact of earthquake Employment and wages are bound to be much slower to respond to the Great East Japan Earthquake than either production or sales, but the business and consumer surveys suggest that the labour market... 30th May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A long way down The sharp contraction in activity in March tipped Japan into recession in Q1. The effect on GDP growth will be more acute in Q2 due to the very low base from which the economy must recover. Even if... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession confirmed? The week ahead will be dominated by the release of Q1 GDP on Thursday, which is almost certain to show the 11th March earthquake tipped the Japanese economy into recession. The low starting point will... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How useful are the PMI surveys? The attractiveness of the PMI surveys lies in their ability to provide an accurate and timely assessment of business conditions. Shocks to the Japan economy, such as the financial crisis and the... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Two positives for Golden Week Much of our recent coverage of the Japanese economy has been distinctly gloomy, summed up in our forecast that GDP will fall outright this year. This view has been supported by the recent activity... 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Taking stock: the economic impact of the earthquake In the six weeks since the earthquake, largely survey-based evidence has pointed to a sharp downturn in activity and sentiment in March. A flurry of official data before the Golden Week holidays begin... 25th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Little room for manoeuvre in public finances The chances of an imminent fiscal crisis may be small, but public finances have limited room fo rmanoeuvre. Another shock to the economy or investor confidence could mark a tipping point in the... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What will the disaster do to inflation? Japanese inflation was always likely to turn positive this year due to commodity price movements and base effects in the year-on-year comparison. The recent disaster means inflation is likely to be... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Risk of fiscal crisis growing Some commentators have argued that Japan’s ability to sell assets or print money to service its government debt means it makes no sense to worry about a “fiscal crisis”. The chances that the Japanese... 4th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Big downside risks to the Tankan The risks to the markets from the Tankan seem to be skewed in just one direction . If the results o fthe Q1 survey published on Friday are in line or slightly better than consensus, they could be... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why it's worse than Kobe The Japanese economy as a whole managed to shrug off the impact of the Kobe earthquake in 1995. However, this time it’s different: the recent disaster has had national effects and the blow to... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly National disaster The Bank of Japan has announced that the two-day Policy Board meeting previously scheduled for Monday and Tuesday will now be cut short to one day and conclude on Monday. No reason was given, but the... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A long week in politics Prime Minister Kan is pushing his budget through parliament but will face a much tougher time passing the financing bills required to fund it. The opposition may only play ball if he tenders his... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
