Japan Economics Weekly GDP forecasts revised down In this Weekly we present our revised forecasts for Japanese GDP. The tail-end of the recovery from March’s disaster should ensure a return to growth in Q3, but beyond this the outlook has... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Stimulus needed to prevent treble-dip The latest data from Japan painted a gloomy picture of current conditions and suggest the risks of a treble-dip are increasing. GDP should have returned to growth in Q3, but could fall again in Q4. In... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan not government could turn the yen The rout in financial markets last week reflected a realisation that the global economy is slowing and there are limits to how much policymakers can do about it. Japan’s government has little scope to... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly “Operation Twist” not so pivotal for the yen The prospect of a renewed widening of the spread between two-year yields in the US and those in Japan is being cited by some as a good reason to expect the yen to weaken if the Fed implements... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Nervous households have much to be nervous about The recovery in consumer confidence stalled in August at a still low level, with sentiment on the outlook for employment worryingly depressed. Although there is nothing to suggest that the economy... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Vehicle sales: a good indicator of retail spending? Domestic vehicle sales in Japan appear to be closely correlated with both consumer confidence and retail sales. Recent sharp gyrations in the monthly retail sales data make understanding their... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growth and inflation: where next? We have revised our Japan GDP and inflation forecasts out to 2013 but still expect a full-year recession in 2011. The smaller than expected contraction in second quarter GDP suggests that the rebound... 30th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What will Japan's policymakers do next? Japan’s policymakers have sat on their hands and watched the yen climb to new highs since intervening in foreign exchange markets earlier this month. We expect recent financial market turmoil to be... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Still in the grip of deflation The revision to the CPI base-year resulted in a marked downward revision to inflation, showing clearly that Japan is still in the grip of deflation. Although the Bank of Japan has only recently... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Don’t overestimate the impact of a strong yen The intervention to weaken the yen was only ever going to meet with limited success so long as the forces pushing the currency higher remain intact. That does not necessarily mean that the hollowing... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to make of a strong yen The recent strength of the yen has raised the prospect of exchange rate intervention from the Japanese government. We think this is unnecessary and, worse, would probably be ineffective. The yen has... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly No escape from deflation Reports of the death of deflation in Japan have been greatly exaggerated. Inflation has only temporarily turned positive, largely as a result of higher commodity prices and base effects in the annual... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Trying to keep the lights on The government’s plan to “stress test” all nuclear facilities could further delay the restart of currently idle reactors just as we enter the summer period of peak power demand when they are needed... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly GDP forecasts refreshed We have nudged up our forecast for Japanese GDP in 2011 but continue to expect a full year recession with the economy contracting by 1.2% . While the initial recovery from March’s disaster has been... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A closer look at the Tankan The Tankan confirmed that Japanese business conditions deteriorated in Q2, but more importantly that they are likely to improve, albeit only slightly, in Q3. As the initial disruption from the... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan-China trade: explaining the double deficit According to Ministry of Finance, Japan runs a trade deficit with China. However, when one looks at the trade data from a Chinese standpoint, it appears that China is also running a trade deficit with... 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
