Japan Economics Weekly Too early to declare end of tightening cycle Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s view that financial markets remain unstable suggests that the Bank may not raise rates as soon as October as we’re anticipating. However, Ueda reiterated that the Bank... 23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumption revival points to another rate hike The strong rebound in household consumption last quarter was underpinned by a pick-up in real incomes. This should allay lingering concerns among BoJ policymakers that the economy is too weak to cope... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will still press ahead with another hike We're sending this Japan Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Friday for National Day. Financial markets have calmed following the turmoil earlier this... 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan encouraged by pick-up in consumption A rebound in retail sales likely underpinned the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates this week. Measures by the government, including tax cuts and electricity and gas subsidies, should... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Services inflation slowing but broadening The data released this week on balance increase the risk that the Bank of Japan leaves interest rates unchanged next week. While household disposable income jumped in Q1, that reflected a one-off... 26th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Additional semiconductor curbs won’t cripple exports Japan's government seems to have intervened in the foreign exchange markets to strengthen the yen yet again last week and we think that the chances of a sustained rebound in the yen are rising... 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will hike rates to 0.5% by year-end The persistent strength in producer prices of manufactured goods means that underlying inflation will probably settle around the Bank of Japan's 2% target over the second half of the year rather than... 12th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Budget deficit set to keep narrowing Our analysis suggests that Japan's budget deficit is narrowing much more quickly than most were anticipating. That underpins our view that the ratio of public debt to GDP should return to pre-virus... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rebound in underlying inflation points to July rate hike The yen weakened to multi-decade lows against the dollar this week and the Bank of Japan is getting increasingly worried that rising import costs are creating upside risks to inflation. Indeed, the... 28th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Concerns over weaker yen will prompt July rate hike The Bank of Japan is concerned that the weak yen will result in a renewed acceleration in non-energy goods inflation and we think that the slide of the exchange rate to multi-decade lows this week... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Higher bond yields won’t prompt massive repatriation While 10-year JGB yields have fallen well below 1% as the BoJ today delayed the announcement of tapering plans to its July meeting, they are still around a decade-high. The ability of Japanese... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Virtuous cycle will go into reverse next year The jump in wage growth in April provides tentative evidence that the strong pay results agreed in this year's spring wage negotiations are starting to filter through and we expect regular earnings... 7th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Lower education costs could boost fertility rate While Japan's fertility rate seems to have fallen to a record low last year, it has held up better than in many of its high-income neighbours. Most of the decline is driven by the decline in marriage... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Upcoming Shunto will thwart further policy tightening The recent sharp slowdown in underlying inflation isn't inconsistent with the Bank of Japan's view that most of the previous strength in inflation was driven by an import cost that is now fading... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak activity won’t forestall BoJ tightening On the Bank of Japan's favoured measure, spare capacity has remained tight across the economy despite the recent weakness of GDP - which this week's data confirmed extended into Q1. That's another... 17th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Car production to drive Q2 GDP rebound Shutdowns at major carmakers were a key reason behind the likely plunge in GDP last quarter, but with production now having been resumed, a strong rebound in activity is on the cards. Meanwhile, the... 10th May 2024 · 5 mins read
