Japan Economics Update A look ahead to Japan’s Q2 GDP data The first estimate of Japan’s second quarter GDP will be released, not very auspiciously, on the 13th (next Wednesday). We expect this to show an outright fall of around 0.3% q/q, although a much... 6th August 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s manufacturing recession to be short and shallow The 2.0% m/m decline in Japanese industrial production in June confirms that output has now fallen for two successive quarters. This was at least widely expected: the consensus was for a fall of 1.7%... 30th July 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan on hold until global backdrop improves On their own, the Bank of Japan’s revised economic forecasts are still consistent with our view that interest rates could be raised again by the end of the year. Nonetheless, the deteriorating global... 15th July 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan shows Japan’s economy slowing, not collapsing June’s Tankan survey confirms that Japanese business conditions are deteriorating, but not as far as most had feared. The economy is in much better shape than at similar stages in previous downturns. 1st July 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan to remain well above recession territory The Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for June, due next Tuesday (1st July), will almost certainly report that business conditions have deteriorated. However, there has been some better news... 23rd June 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ more sensitive than most to jump in inflation expectations The Bank of Japan predictably left rates on hold today. But with inflation expectations soaring, we believe that rates will be raised again sooner than generally anticipated and perhaps even earlier... 13th June 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Corporate Japan in good shape to weather global slowdown The relative resilience of capital spending in the first quarter survey from the Ministry of Finance supports other evidence that corporate Japan is in much better shape than at similar stages in... 4th June 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan drops tightening bias The Bank of Japan left rates on hold today, as universally expected, but the tone of its twice-yearly “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices” is more dovish than we at least had anticipated. In... 30th April 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How much should we worry about Japanese consumers? Japanese consumer confidence remains near five-year lows despite a slight pick-up last month. Nonetheless, spending is holding up well. The single biggest negative for confidence is the perception... 18th April 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update No sign of recession or financial crisis in Japan’s Tankan The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey of business conditions in manufacturing was slightly weaker than the median forecasts, but the risks were always on the downside and the actual results are still... 1st April 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese output falls, wages pick up Today’s mixed bag of Japanese data contains something for everyone. The fall in industrial production is consistent with talk of recession, but the trend recovery in housebuilding continues and wages... 31st March 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update The “wrong” type of inflation in Japan? Inflation driven solely by food and energy prices is not exactly what the Bank of Japan has been hoping for. Nonetheless, even if Japan is experiencing the “wrong” type of inflation now, the chances... 28th March 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan to remain well above recession territory The Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for March, due next Tuesday (1st April), will almost certainly show that business conditions have deteriorated. However, the markets are already prepared... 25th March 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Does it matter who governs the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan left rates on hold today, as universally expected. The real interest lies in the dispute over the replacement for Governor Fukui, who retires later this month. We think that the... 7th March 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Strong finish to 2007 sets Japan up nicely for 2008 The surge in GDP at the end of 2007 supports our non-consensus view that, rather than heading for recession, Japan will be the only major economy to grow at least as quickly this year as last. It... 14th February 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery in construction to help rescue Japanese GDP The latest housing starts data should (but perhaps won’t) quieten talk that Japan is heading into recession. Indeed, we are increasingly confident that a sustained recovery in the construction sector... 31st January 2008 · 1 min read
