Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan scrapes the bottom of the barrel The Bank of Japan further widened the range of eligible collateral in its money market operations after its Policy Board meeting today, although it is hard to avoid the feeling that it is now scraping... 7th April 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Can Japan afford any more fiscal stimulus (revisited)? Today’s reports that Japan is planning another fiscal stimulus, which will include more than ¥10 trillion (2% of GDP) in additional spending, are little surprise. But they do raise the question of... 6th April 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s Tankan to signal early recovery? The Bank of Japan’s “Tankan” survey, released next Wednesday (1st April), will doubtless show that business conditions worsened further in the first quarter, but probably not by as much as the markets... 23rd March 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan adds to its armoury Today’s announcement that the Bank of Japan is willing to provide subordinated loans to banks continues the drip-feed of unconventional policy measures it has introduced since October. The latest... 17th March 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan still a surplus country? We expect Japan to record a deficit this year both on trade in goods and services and on the overall current account balance. This sharp turnaround (from large surpluses in 2007) reflects the double... 9th March 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update A tiny silver lining in Japan’s trade data January’s data all but guarantee that collapsing exports will make another large negative contribution to Japan’s GDP in the first quarter. However, imports have also started to drop back, which means... 25th February 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan positioning for a V-shaped recovery We expect next Monday’s preliminary data to show that the Japanese economy contracted by around 3.5% q/q in the fourth quarter of last year (an annualised rate of 15%). However, Japan may well then... 9th February 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan has a lot more work to do The Bank of Japan’s modest programme of asset purchases is unlikely to be the last word, especially given the deterioration in economic and financial conditions acknowledged today in its own forecasts... 22nd January 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan cuts rates to near zero, will buy CP outright The Bank of Japan effectively reverted to a zero interest rate policy today and edged towards quantitative easing, although the embrace of QE is still half-hearted. We are certainly not impressed by... 19th December 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese Tankan could have been a lot worse The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey of business conditions was not quite as bad as we had feared, but we may just have been a quarter early. The one consolation is that Japan is not alone – other major... 15th December 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Brace for an awful Tankan We expect the headline numbers from the Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for December, released next Monday, to be even worse than the consensus. Our forecast for the large manufacturers’... 10th December 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan on hold – but not for much longer As widely anticipated, the Bank of Japan left policy rates unchanged today. However, the prospect of outright declines in both economic activity and prices next year suggests that rates are heading... 21st November 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still not finished cutting rates The Bank of Japan’s willingness to cut interest rates even further from already exceptionally low levels, combined with the prospect of outright declines in both economic activity and prices, suggests... 31st October 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What does the global slowdown mean for Japan? Japan’s seasonally adjusted trade deficit of ¥208 billion in August reported earlier in the week – the first monthly deficit since the early 1980s – has increased concerns about the fallout from the... 17th October 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan to show Japanese economy still relatively healthy We believe that the Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for September, due next Wednesday, will show that business conditions have held up rather better than the consensus expects. Indeed, the... 24th September 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan shows Japan’s economy slowing, not collapsing The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey of business conditions was disappointing but not disastrous. The detail contained some reassuring news with regard to financial conditions and the labour market. 1st September 2008 · 1 min read
