Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan has a lot more work to do The Bank of Japan’s modest programme of asset purchases is unlikely to be the last word, especially given the deterioration in economic and financial conditions acknowledged today in its own forecasts... 22nd January 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan cuts rates to near zero, will buy CP outright The Bank of Japan effectively reverted to a zero interest rate policy today and edged towards quantitative easing, although the embrace of QE is still half-hearted. We are certainly not impressed by... 19th December 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese Tankan could have been a lot worse The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey of business conditions was not quite as bad as we had feared, but we may just have been a quarter early. The one consolation is that Japan is not alone – other major... 15th December 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Brace for an awful Tankan We expect the headline numbers from the Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for December, released next Monday, to be even worse than the consensus. Our forecast for the large manufacturers’... 10th December 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan on hold – but not for much longer As widely anticipated, the Bank of Japan left policy rates unchanged today. However, the prospect of outright declines in both economic activity and prices next year suggests that rates are heading... 21st November 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still not finished cutting rates The Bank of Japan’s willingness to cut interest rates even further from already exceptionally low levels, combined with the prospect of outright declines in both economic activity and prices, suggests... 31st October 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What does the global slowdown mean for Japan? Japan’s seasonally adjusted trade deficit of ¥208 billion in August reported earlier in the week – the first monthly deficit since the early 1980s – has increased concerns about the fallout from the... 17th October 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan to show Japanese economy still relatively healthy We believe that the Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for September, due next Wednesday, will show that business conditions have held up rather better than the consensus expects. Indeed, the... 24th September 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan shows Japan’s economy slowing, not collapsing The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey of business conditions was disappointing but not disastrous. The detail contained some reassuring news with regard to financial conditions and the labour market. 1st September 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update A look ahead to Japan’s Q2 GDP data The first estimate of Japan’s second quarter GDP will be released, not very auspiciously, on the 13th (next Wednesday). We expect this to show an outright fall of around 0.3% q/q, although a much... 6th August 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s manufacturing recession to be short and shallow The 2.0% m/m decline in Japanese industrial production in June confirms that output has now fallen for two successive quarters. This was at least widely expected: the consensus was for a fall of 1.7%... 30th July 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan on hold until global backdrop improves On their own, the Bank of Japan’s revised economic forecasts are still consistent with our view that interest rates could be raised again by the end of the year. Nonetheless, the deteriorating global... 15th July 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan shows Japan’s economy slowing, not collapsing June’s Tankan survey confirms that Japanese business conditions are deteriorating, but not as far as most had feared. The economy is in much better shape than at similar stages in previous downturns. 1st July 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan to remain well above recession territory The Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for June, due next Tuesday (1st July), will almost certainly report that business conditions have deteriorated. However, there has been some better news... 23rd June 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ more sensitive than most to jump in inflation expectations The Bank of Japan predictably left rates on hold today. But with inflation expectations soaring, we believe that rates will be raised again sooner than generally anticipated and perhaps even earlier... 13th June 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Corporate Japan in good shape to weather global slowdown The relative resilience of capital spending in the first quarter survey from the Ministry of Finance supports other evidence that corporate Japan is in much better shape than at similar stages in... 4th June 2008 · 1 min read
