Japan Economics Update Japan’s export rebound signals return to growth The Bank of Japan’s data on external trade, released this morning, suggest that Japanese exports rebounded by more than 12% q/q in the second quarter. This supports our long-held view that Japan will... 23rd July 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan growth forecasts nudged lower The unexpected downward revisions to the Bank of Japan’s GDP forecasts have unnerved the markets, but we would not read too much into them. In contrast, the decision to prolong the “temporary”... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese stimulus earns government a poor return Japanese consumer confidence remained on its relatively impressive upward trend in June, helped by the latest fiscal stimulus. However, this has come too late to rescue the government, which is facing... 13th July 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How worrying is the fall in Japanese machinery orders? Today’s headlines from Japan have focused on the continued weakness of machinery orders in May. But we would pay more attention to the continued recovery in the more timely surveys of business... 8th July 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s inventory correction not over yet The 5.9% m/m increase in industrial production in May, which followed an identical rise in April, supports our long-held view that Japan will be among the first of the major economies to return to... 29th June 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese equities could be the best of a bad lot There are good reasons to expect Japanese equities to prove relatively resilient even if foreign appetite fades again: the market is much less overvalued than it used to be; Japan is poised to enjoy a... 24th June 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan’s export recovery already faltering? The renewed acceleration in the pace of decline in Japanese exports in May on a year-on-year basis has raised concerns that the fledgling recovery is already faltering. However, a closer look at the... 24th June 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan’s Tankan to surprise on the upside Japan’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS), released this morning, has allowed us to firm up our forecast for the Q2 Tankan survey, released on 1st July. We now forecast that the headline index (current... 22nd June 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan won’t lead a rush for the exit The Bank of Japan shows no signs of repeating its past mistake of tightening policy prematurely, as was the case in both 2000 and 2006. Interest rates will remain near-zero for the foreseeable future. 16th June 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s households less pessimistic, spending to remain weak The further recovery in Japanese consumer confidence in May is a necessary but unfortunately not sufficient condition for a sustained rebound in household spending. 12th June 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s trade data show Q2 off to a flying start The jump in Japanese export volumes in April gets the second quarter off to a flying start. Combined with the improvement in the forward-looking survey data it looks increasingly likely that GDP will... 27th May 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How reliable is Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey? The jump in the Economy Watchers Survey of business conditions in April provides some of the best evidence yet that the Japanese economy is past the worst. However, while the recent rebound is... 13th May 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Deflation and unemployment need not derail Japan’s recovery The jump in Japan’s unemployment rate from 4.4% to 4.8% in March (consensus 4.6%) removes some of the shine from yesterday’s better manufacturing data. What’s more, unemployment has much further to... 1st May 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan on track for early recovery The rise in industrial production in March and projections of further increases in April and May support our view that the Japanese economy could start to grow again as soon as the current quarter... 30th April 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Trade data suggest Japan’s recovery to begin in Q2 Today’s March trade figures allow us to firm up our estimates for Japanese GDP in the first quarter and have an educated guess (with only a little imagination) at the second quarter too. The economy... 22nd April 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the sun rising again in Japan? The improvement in consumer confidence reported this morning is consistent with our view that the Japanese economy could start growing again as early as the current quarter. Admittedly, any recovery... 17th April 2009 · 1 min read
