Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still not finished cutting rates The Bank of Japan’s willingness to cut interest rates even further from already exceptionally low levels, combined with the prospect of outright declines in both economic activity and prices, suggests... 31st October 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What does the global slowdown mean for Japan? Japan’s seasonally adjusted trade deficit of ¥208 billion in August reported earlier in the week – the first monthly deficit since the early 1980s – has increased concerns about the fallout from the... 17th October 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan to show Japanese economy still relatively healthy We believe that the Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for September, due next Wednesday, will show that business conditions have held up rather better than the consensus expects. Indeed, the... 24th September 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan shows Japan’s economy slowing, not collapsing The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey of business conditions was disappointing but not disastrous. The detail contained some reassuring news with regard to financial conditions and the labour market. 1st September 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update A look ahead to Japan’s Q2 GDP data The first estimate of Japan’s second quarter GDP will be released, not very auspiciously, on the 13th (next Wednesday). We expect this to show an outright fall of around 0.3% q/q, although a much... 6th August 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s manufacturing recession to be short and shallow The 2.0% m/m decline in Japanese industrial production in June confirms that output has now fallen for two successive quarters. This was at least widely expected: the consensus was for a fall of 1.7%... 30th July 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan on hold until global backdrop improves On their own, the Bank of Japan’s revised economic forecasts are still consistent with our view that interest rates could be raised again by the end of the year. Nonetheless, the deteriorating global... 15th July 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan shows Japan’s economy slowing, not collapsing June’s Tankan survey confirms that Japanese business conditions are deteriorating, but not as far as most had feared. The economy is in much better shape than at similar stages in previous downturns. 1st July 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan to remain well above recession territory The Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for June, due next Tuesday (1st July), will almost certainly report that business conditions have deteriorated. However, there has been some better news... 23rd June 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ more sensitive than most to jump in inflation expectations The Bank of Japan predictably left rates on hold today. But with inflation expectations soaring, we believe that rates will be raised again sooner than generally anticipated and perhaps even earlier... 13th June 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Corporate Japan in good shape to weather global slowdown The relative resilience of capital spending in the first quarter survey from the Ministry of Finance supports other evidence that corporate Japan is in much better shape than at similar stages in... 4th June 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan drops tightening bias The Bank of Japan left rates on hold today, as universally expected, but the tone of its twice-yearly “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices” is more dovish than we at least had anticipated. In... 30th April 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How much should we worry about Japanese consumers? Japanese consumer confidence remains near five-year lows despite a slight pick-up last month. Nonetheless, spending is holding up well. The single biggest negative for confidence is the perception... 18th April 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update No sign of recession or financial crisis in Japan’s Tankan The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey of business conditions in manufacturing was slightly weaker than the median forecasts, but the risks were always on the downside and the actual results are still... 1st April 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese output falls, wages pick up Today’s mixed bag of Japanese data contains something for everyone. The fall in industrial production is consistent with talk of recession, but the trend recovery in housebuilding continues and wages... 31st March 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update The “wrong” type of inflation in Japan? Inflation driven solely by food and energy prices is not exactly what the Bank of Japan has been hoping for. Nonetheless, even if Japan is experiencing the “wrong” type of inflation now, the chances... 28th March 2008 · 1 min read