Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan’s Tankan to surprise on the upside Japan’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS), released this morning, has allowed us to firm up our forecast for the Q2 Tankan survey, released on 1st July. We now forecast that the headline index (current... 22nd June 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan won’t lead a rush for the exit The Bank of Japan shows no signs of repeating its past mistake of tightening policy prematurely, as was the case in both 2000 and 2006. Interest rates will remain near-zero for the foreseeable future. 16th June 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s households less pessimistic, spending to remain weak The further recovery in Japanese consumer confidence in May is a necessary but unfortunately not sufficient condition for a sustained rebound in household spending. 12th June 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s trade data show Q2 off to a flying start The jump in Japanese export volumes in April gets the second quarter off to a flying start. Combined with the improvement in the forward-looking survey data it looks increasingly likely that GDP will... 27th May 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How reliable is Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey? The jump in the Economy Watchers Survey of business conditions in April provides some of the best evidence yet that the Japanese economy is past the worst. However, while the recent rebound is... 13th May 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Deflation and unemployment need not derail Japan’s recovery The jump in Japan’s unemployment rate from 4.4% to 4.8% in March (consensus 4.6%) removes some of the shine from yesterday’s better manufacturing data. What’s more, unemployment has much further to... 1st May 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan on track for early recovery The rise in industrial production in March and projections of further increases in April and May support our view that the Japanese economy could start to grow again as soon as the current quarter... 30th April 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Trade data suggest Japan’s recovery to begin in Q2 Today’s March trade figures allow us to firm up our estimates for Japanese GDP in the first quarter and have an educated guess (with only a little imagination) at the second quarter too. The economy... 22nd April 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the sun rising again in Japan? The improvement in consumer confidence reported this morning is consistent with our view that the Japanese economy could start growing again as early as the current quarter. Admittedly, any recovery... 17th April 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan scrapes the bottom of the barrel The Bank of Japan further widened the range of eligible collateral in its money market operations after its Policy Board meeting today, although it is hard to avoid the feeling that it is now scraping... 7th April 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Can Japan afford any more fiscal stimulus (revisited)? Today’s reports that Japan is planning another fiscal stimulus, which will include more than ¥10 trillion (2% of GDP) in additional spending, are little surprise. But they do raise the question of... 6th April 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s Tankan to signal early recovery? The Bank of Japan’s “Tankan” survey, released next Wednesday (1st April), will doubtless show that business conditions worsened further in the first quarter, but probably not by as much as the markets... 23rd March 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan adds to its armoury Today’s announcement that the Bank of Japan is willing to provide subordinated loans to banks continues the drip-feed of unconventional policy measures it has introduced since October. The latest... 17th March 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan still a surplus country? We expect Japan to record a deficit this year both on trade in goods and services and on the overall current account balance. This sharp turnaround (from large surpluses in 2007) reflects the double... 9th March 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update A tiny silver lining in Japan’s trade data January’s data all but guarantee that collapsing exports will make another large negative contribution to Japan’s GDP in the first quarter. However, imports have also started to drop back, which means... 25th February 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan positioning for a V-shaped recovery We expect next Monday’s preliminary data to show that the Japanese economy contracted by around 3.5% q/q in the fourth quarter of last year (an annualised rate of 15%). However, Japan may well then... 9th February 2009 · 1 min read
