Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Despite the relative inactivity of the central bank, Japan’s broad monetary aggregates are picking up. The year-on-year decline in bank lending in December is probably not as worrying as it looks... 12th January 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update GDP growth to top 3% this year We are upgrading our forecast for Japanese GDP growth in 2010 from 3.0% to 3.5%. This is well above the latest published consensus forecast of around 1.5%, as well as the projections from the likes of... 5th January 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan raises inflation sights, barely Despite the interest and speculation today’s announcement has generated, the Bank of Japan’s change to its language on price stability is trivial and will have no implications for monetary policy. 18th December 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal stimulus small but perfectly formed The government’s scope for manoeuvre on fiscal policy is obviously limited given Japan’s huge public debt, but the additional stimulus announced today was probably the best that could be expected. 8th December 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Hopes of recovery in investment prove premature The slump in business spending in Q3 revealed in today’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) survey is partly old news, but the quarterly profile points to a substantial downward revision to the GDP data for... 3rd December 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan’s gesture fails to impress The markets are right to be underwhelmed by the Bank of Japan’s announcement of a fresh injection of liquidity. An even longer period of ultra-loose monetary policy will maintain the downward pressure... 1st December 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Annual growth of exports positive again by January The continued recovery in Japanese exports in October supports our view that GDP growth will not slow as much in the fourth quarter as most seem to expect. However, a sharp fall in imports last month... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan’s recovery already faltering? The falls in the main balances of Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey in October suggest that the recovery lost a little momentum at the start of the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, growth was probably... 10th November 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling unemployment eases pressure on Bank of Japan The Bank of Japan has announced a timetable for the withdrawal of some emergency facilities that have become increasingly redundant. But the Bank’s own forecasts of persistent deflation confirm that... 30th October 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese exports jump despite strong yen Looking beyond the headline year-on-year figures, Japan’s export volumes jumped again in the third quarter. The strength of the yen is not an insurmountable hurdle as long as global demand is... 22nd October 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan in no rush for the exit The Bank of Japan’s silence on when it will end its purchases of bank-owned corporate debt is being interpreted by some as a lack of faith in the recovery and by others as a response to government... 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan Tankan points to continued recovery The Bank of Japan’s September Tankan survey released today showed a further improvement in the business conditions faced by large manufacturers and large non-manufacturers. But the pick-up in... 1st October 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What to look for in the Tankan The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey (released on 1st October) will show a marked improvement in business conditions faced by large manufacturers. However, a rebound in sentiment among smaller... 25th September 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese exports continue to recover As usual, the headlines today have focused on the continued weakness of Japanese exports in year-onyear terms. But the more revealing monthly profile shows a sixth successive increase. 24th September 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How big a worry is Japanese unemployment? It is tempting to dismiss the significance of the surge in Japanese unemployment as a lagging indicator, but this would be a mistake. With nominal wages already falling outright, growing excess labour... 28th August 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will deflation stall Japan’s recovery? Japan’s renewed slide into deflation does not appear to have prevented the economy from rebounding last quarter – indeed the boost to real incomes may actually have helped. However, there is a growing... 31st July 2009 · 1 min read
