Japan Economics Update Europe’s crisis will not derail Japan’s recovery The turmoil in the euro-zone has hit investor confidence in Japan much harder than we believe is justified by economic fundamentals. 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan straying into industrial policy The Bank of Japan’s proposed one-year loan scheme is designed to support the government’s longerterm industrial policy rather than to ease monetary conditions more generally. As such the immediate... 21st May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What's really behind the weakness in bank lending? Claims that the current weakness of bank lending is due to the poaching of deposits by Japan Post make no sense. The real reason is the lack of demand for this type of credit. 11th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan leaves door open for further easing Despite revising its growth and inflation forecasts higher, the Bank of Japan signalled today that it accepts more monetary support will be required to sustain the recovery. We are not sure that the... 30th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Could Japan sustain growth of 2%? The Japanese government is banking on average annual GDP growth of at least 2% over the next ten years to help bring public debt back under control. This would be well above most estimates of Japan’s... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan rightly more positive on economy The Bank of Japan tweaked its qualitative assessment of the economy today, changing a few words here and there to suggest a more positive outlook. However, we will have to wait until the latest... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Credibility lost in the Post The plan to raise the caps on postal savings deposits and life insurance is being interpreted by some as positive for Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and by others as a major threat to the banking... 26th March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Which matters more – gross or net debt? The quarterly Flow of Funds data published by the Bank of Japan today shed a little more light on several hot topics, including households’ holdings of government securities and the huge difference... 23rd March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan does the decent thing The bare minimum the Bank of Japan could have got away with today was to extend the lifetime of the existing ¥10 trillion programme of three-month loans. In the event it has also doubled the size of... 17th March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery in investment remains on track The year-on-year slump in business spending in Q4 reported in today’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) survey is largely old news. Neither the year-on-year nor the quarter-on-quarter data justify speculation... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Near-term outlook bright, but recession looms next year Speculation about a temporary double-dip in Japan’s economy by the middle of this year is missing a much bigger threat. We still expect growth to surprise the markets on the upside for a few quarters... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan the next Greece? Japan should be able to avoid the sort of crisis that has hit Greece so hard. Government debt may be even larger in Japan, but the country is in a much stronger position in almost every other respect. 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Governor Shirakawa’s caution is not the last word The Bank of Japan meeting which concluded today was the non-event that most (ourselves included) had anticipated. Governor Shirakawa reiterated the Policy Board’s reluctance to adopt a more formal... 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What could the new seasonals mean for GDP? The Cabinet Office has announced a change in the seasonal adjustments that might reduce the GDP growth figure reported for the fourth quarter of 2009 (data due next Monday). However, any impact is... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The renewed weakness of bank lending is largely due to lower demand for credit rather than a lack of supply. This is not all bad news – emergency bank borrowing by firms in distress is probably... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ sits tight as S&P issues credit warning The Bank of Japan failed to make any new policy announcements today, disappointing some in the markets (ourselves included) who had hoped for at least a hint of further easing. However, the warning... 26th January 2010 · 1 min read
