Japan Economics Update Is Japan’s recovery already faltering? The falls in the main balances of Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey in October suggest that the recovery lost a little momentum at the start of the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, growth was probably... 10th November 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling unemployment eases pressure on Bank of Japan The Bank of Japan has announced a timetable for the withdrawal of some emergency facilities that have become increasingly redundant. But the Bank’s own forecasts of persistent deflation confirm that... 30th October 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese exports jump despite strong yen Looking beyond the headline year-on-year figures, Japan’s export volumes jumped again in the third quarter. The strength of the yen is not an insurmountable hurdle as long as global demand is... 22nd October 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan in no rush for the exit The Bank of Japan’s silence on when it will end its purchases of bank-owned corporate debt is being interpreted by some as a lack of faith in the recovery and by others as a response to government... 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan Tankan points to continued recovery The Bank of Japan’s September Tankan survey released today showed a further improvement in the business conditions faced by large manufacturers and large non-manufacturers. But the pick-up in... 1st October 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What to look for in the Tankan The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey (released on 1st October) will show a marked improvement in business conditions faced by large manufacturers. However, a rebound in sentiment among smaller... 25th September 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese exports continue to recover As usual, the headlines today have focused on the continued weakness of Japanese exports in year-onyear terms. But the more revealing monthly profile shows a sixth successive increase. 24th September 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How big a worry is Japanese unemployment? It is tempting to dismiss the significance of the surge in Japanese unemployment as a lagging indicator, but this would be a mistake. With nominal wages already falling outright, growing excess labour... 28th August 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will deflation stall Japan’s recovery? Japan’s renewed slide into deflation does not appear to have prevented the economy from rebounding last quarter – indeed the boost to real incomes may actually have helped. However, there is a growing... 31st July 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s export rebound signals return to growth The Bank of Japan’s data on external trade, released this morning, suggest that Japanese exports rebounded by more than 12% q/q in the second quarter. This supports our long-held view that Japan will... 23rd July 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan growth forecasts nudged lower The unexpected downward revisions to the Bank of Japan’s GDP forecasts have unnerved the markets, but we would not read too much into them. In contrast, the decision to prolong the “temporary”... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese stimulus earns government a poor return Japanese consumer confidence remained on its relatively impressive upward trend in June, helped by the latest fiscal stimulus. However, this has come too late to rescue the government, which is facing... 13th July 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How worrying is the fall in Japanese machinery orders? Today’s headlines from Japan have focused on the continued weakness of machinery orders in May. But we would pay more attention to the continued recovery in the more timely surveys of business... 8th July 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s inventory correction not over yet The 5.9% m/m increase in industrial production in May, which followed an identical rise in April, supports our long-held view that Japan will be among the first of the major economies to return to... 29th June 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese equities could be the best of a bad lot There are good reasons to expect Japanese equities to prove relatively resilient even if foreign appetite fades again: the market is much less overvalued than it used to be; Japan is poised to enjoy a... 24th June 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan’s export recovery already faltering? The renewed acceleration in the pace of decline in Japanese exports in May on a year-on-year basis has raised concerns that the fledgling recovery is already faltering. However, a closer look at the... 24th June 2009 · 1 min read
