Japan Economics Update Which matters more – gross or net debt? The quarterly Flow of Funds data published by the Bank of Japan today shed a little more light on several hot topics, including households’ holdings of government securities and the huge difference... 23rd March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan does the decent thing The bare minimum the Bank of Japan could have got away with today was to extend the lifetime of the existing ¥10 trillion programme of three-month loans. In the event it has also doubled the size of... 17th March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery in investment remains on track The year-on-year slump in business spending in Q4 reported in today’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) survey is largely old news. Neither the year-on-year nor the quarter-on-quarter data justify speculation... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Near-term outlook bright, but recession looms next year Speculation about a temporary double-dip in Japan’s economy by the middle of this year is missing a much bigger threat. We still expect growth to surprise the markets on the upside for a few quarters... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan the next Greece? Japan should be able to avoid the sort of crisis that has hit Greece so hard. Government debt may be even larger in Japan, but the country is in a much stronger position in almost every other respect. 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Governor Shirakawa’s caution is not the last word The Bank of Japan meeting which concluded today was the non-event that most (ourselves included) had anticipated. Governor Shirakawa reiterated the Policy Board’s reluctance to adopt a more formal... 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What could the new seasonals mean for GDP? The Cabinet Office has announced a change in the seasonal adjustments that might reduce the GDP growth figure reported for the fourth quarter of 2009 (data due next Monday). However, any impact is... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The renewed weakness of bank lending is largely due to lower demand for credit rather than a lack of supply. This is not all bad news – emergency bank borrowing by firms in distress is probably... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ sits tight as S&P issues credit warning The Bank of Japan failed to make any new policy announcements today, disappointing some in the markets (ourselves included) who had hoped for at least a hint of further easing. However, the warning... 26th January 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Despite the relative inactivity of the central bank, Japan’s broad monetary aggregates are picking up. The year-on-year decline in bank lending in December is probably not as worrying as it looks... 12th January 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update GDP growth to top 3% this year We are upgrading our forecast for Japanese GDP growth in 2010 from 3.0% to 3.5%. This is well above the latest published consensus forecast of around 1.5%, as well as the projections from the likes of... 5th January 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan raises inflation sights, barely Despite the interest and speculation today’s announcement has generated, the Bank of Japan’s change to its language on price stability is trivial and will have no implications for monetary policy. 18th December 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal stimulus small but perfectly formed The government’s scope for manoeuvre on fiscal policy is obviously limited given Japan’s huge public debt, but the additional stimulus announced today was probably the best that could be expected. 8th December 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Hopes of recovery in investment prove premature The slump in business spending in Q3 revealed in today’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) survey is partly old news, but the quarterly profile points to a substantial downward revision to the GDP data for... 3rd December 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan’s gesture fails to impress The markets are right to be underwhelmed by the Bank of Japan’s announcement of a fresh injection of liquidity. An even longer period of ultra-loose monetary policy will maintain the downward pressure... 1st December 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Annual growth of exports positive again by January The continued recovery in Japanese exports in October supports our view that GDP growth will not slow as much in the fourth quarter as most seem to expect. However, a sharp fall in imports last month... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
