Global Economics Update Natural disasters vs. financial shocks The economic costs of natural disasters, although nowhere near as important as the loss of life, are typically much less than those of major financial shocks. A discussion of why this is the case... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Longer recession, limited rebound Following last Friday’s earthquake and tsunami we are cutting our Japan GDP growth forecast for CY 2011 from 1.0% to zero. We were already expecting GDP to contract for a second successive quarter in... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Yen likely to weaken further in wake of disaster The economic and market impact of the terrible tragedy that has hit Japan will depend partly on the amount of the damage but also on who pays the bills. A large share of the cost will probably have to... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Earthquake increases chances of fiscal crisis The consequences of the major earthquake and tsunami that hit Miyagi Prefecture and other areas in north-eastern Japan today are not yet clear and the impact on local people is of course foremost in... 11th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan's assessment still too sanguine The conclusion of the Bank of Japan’s two-day Policy Board meeting was as close as these occasions can be to a non-event. However, the Bank’s economic view (upgraded today) looks over-optimistic and... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How much should we fear a consumption tax hike? In a parliamentary debate today Prime Minister Kan hinted that the government does not intend to raise Japan’s consumption tax until after the next Lower House elections, which are not scheduled to... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Downgrade not catastrophic but fiscal crisis looms S&P’s decision to downgrade Japan’s sovereign credit rating one notch (to AA-) today may not be a big deal in itself, but it supports our fears that 2011 will be the year when Japan’s dire fiscal... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan has more work to do There were no surprises from the Bank of Japan meeting that ended today and policy was unchanged. Nonetheless, we continue to expect further easing later this year to undermine the yen as the global... 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan shuffles euro reserves as economy slides Japan’s announcement that it will buy bonds issued by the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) has been heralded by some as further evidence of the international support that might help to... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Two elephants leave no room for more fiscal stimulus The corporation tax cuts agreed by the Cabinet today and the supplementary budget passed at the end of November are simply tinkering at the margin. The mountain of public debt and looming demographic... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery too weak to end deflation Japan’s economy is on a roller-coaster ride. This year’s growth overall is likely to be the fastest of any G7 country, but GDP will almost certainly shrink in the fourth quarter. Such volatility... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Why don't households fear deflation? Policy-makers and the financial markets may be focused on the risks posed by persistent deflation, but the latest surveys from Japan suggest that households there do not believe prices are falling and... 12th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will the G20 agree to current account targets? The G20 Summit in Korea next week (11th – 12th) will be overshadowed by the fall-out from “currency wars”, hampering any attempt at the improved coordination of policies necessary to help rebalance... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the Bank of Japan preparing to match the Fed's QE? The Bank of Japan’s decision to bring forward its November Policy Board meeting to the day after next Wednesday’s FOMC raises the intriguing possibility that the Bank intends to respond to any... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What should we make of the BoJ's latest moves? Today’s announcements of a new asset purchase scheme by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and its symbolic lowering of the key policy rate are not game changers and the tepid market response is probably... 5th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Activity index suggests recovery back on track July’s all industry activity index suggests that Japan’s economic recovery picked up again in the third quarter after wobbling in the second quarter. In particular, the expenditure breakdown (which is... 22nd September 2010 · 1 min read
