Japan Economics Update Japan’s short-lived trade surplus with China Japan’s trade surplus with China in the first quarter is not enough to justify talk of a fundamental shift in the balance of trade between the two countries. A closer look at the recent data suggests... 20th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan errs on the side of caution The Bank of Japan’s policy statement today was cautious in its assessment of the economic recovery, revising up the growth forecast for this year to reflect the latest data but leaving next year’s... 15th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update A closer look at May’s trade data May’s external trade data revealed two interesting developments. The first is a growing divergence between trends in the value of exports compared to the volume, probably a consequence of the stronger... 24th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal plans fall well short The manifestos for next month’s Upper House elections published today show a worrying lack of urgency or ambition in their commitments to sort out Japan’s dire public finances. In particular, the... 17th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan sacrifices a little credibility The Bank of Japan’s new loan scheme is essentially a tool of industrial policy (and a clumsy one at that) rather than a significant easing of monetary conditions. As such, it will not help the Bank’s... 15th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Firms shrug off financial markets’ worries Today’s Business Outlook Survey provides further evidence that Japanese companies are much less worried than the markets appear to be about the damage to economic prospects from the crisis in Europe... 14th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan to take the lead from the UK? The appointment of PM Kan’s cabinet has been accompanied by a flurry of tough rhetoric on the need to bring the public finances under control, echoing the shift of emphasis in this weekend’s G20... 8th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Too soon to write off the recovery in investment At face value, the weakness of business spending revealed in today’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) survey points to a downward revision to Q1 GDP, although not necessarily a very large one (perhaps from... 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Political risks to undermine yen further The markets are probably right to shrug off the resignation of Japan’s Prime Minister, but the fragility of the government is a serious concern given the urgent need for a credible plan to tackle the... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Europe’s crisis will not derail Japan’s recovery The turmoil in the euro-zone has hit investor confidence in Japan much harder than we believe is justified by economic fundamentals. 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan straying into industrial policy The Bank of Japan’s proposed one-year loan scheme is designed to support the government’s longerterm industrial policy rather than to ease monetary conditions more generally. As such the immediate... 21st May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What's really behind the weakness in bank lending? Claims that the current weakness of bank lending is due to the poaching of deposits by Japan Post make no sense. The real reason is the lack of demand for this type of credit. 11th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan leaves door open for further easing Despite revising its growth and inflation forecasts higher, the Bank of Japan signalled today that it accepts more monetary support will be required to sustain the recovery. We are not sure that the... 30th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Could Japan sustain growth of 2%? The Japanese government is banking on average annual GDP growth of at least 2% over the next ten years to help bring public debt back under control. This would be well above most estimates of Japan’s... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan rightly more positive on economy The Bank of Japan tweaked its qualitative assessment of the economy today, changing a few words here and there to suggest a more positive outlook. However, we will have to wait until the latest... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Credibility lost in the Post The plan to raise the caps on postal savings deposits and life insurance is being interpreted by some as positive for Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and by others as a major threat to the banking... 26th March 2010 · 1 min read
