Japan Economics Update Firms shrug off financial markets’ worries Today’s Business Outlook Survey provides further evidence that Japanese companies are much less worried than the markets appear to be about the damage to economic prospects from the crisis in Europe... 14th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan to take the lead from the UK? The appointment of PM Kan’s cabinet has been accompanied by a flurry of tough rhetoric on the need to bring the public finances under control, echoing the shift of emphasis in this weekend’s G20... 8th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Too soon to write off the recovery in investment At face value, the weakness of business spending revealed in today’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) survey points to a downward revision to Q1 GDP, although not necessarily a very large one (perhaps from... 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Political risks to undermine yen further The markets are probably right to shrug off the resignation of Japan’s Prime Minister, but the fragility of the government is a serious concern given the urgent need for a credible plan to tackle the... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Europe’s crisis will not derail Japan’s recovery The turmoil in the euro-zone has hit investor confidence in Japan much harder than we believe is justified by economic fundamentals. 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan straying into industrial policy The Bank of Japan’s proposed one-year loan scheme is designed to support the government’s longerterm industrial policy rather than to ease monetary conditions more generally. As such the immediate... 21st May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What's really behind the weakness in bank lending? Claims that the current weakness of bank lending is due to the poaching of deposits by Japan Post make no sense. The real reason is the lack of demand for this type of credit. 11th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan leaves door open for further easing Despite revising its growth and inflation forecasts higher, the Bank of Japan signalled today that it accepts more monetary support will be required to sustain the recovery. We are not sure that the... 30th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Could Japan sustain growth of 2%? The Japanese government is banking on average annual GDP growth of at least 2% over the next ten years to help bring public debt back under control. This would be well above most estimates of Japan’s... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan rightly more positive on economy The Bank of Japan tweaked its qualitative assessment of the economy today, changing a few words here and there to suggest a more positive outlook. However, we will have to wait until the latest... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Credibility lost in the Post The plan to raise the caps on postal savings deposits and life insurance is being interpreted by some as positive for Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and by others as a major threat to the banking... 26th March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Which matters more – gross or net debt? The quarterly Flow of Funds data published by the Bank of Japan today shed a little more light on several hot topics, including households’ holdings of government securities and the huge difference... 23rd March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan does the decent thing The bare minimum the Bank of Japan could have got away with today was to extend the lifetime of the existing ¥10 trillion programme of three-month loans. In the event it has also doubled the size of... 17th March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery in investment remains on track The year-on-year slump in business spending in Q4 reported in today’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) survey is largely old news. Neither the year-on-year nor the quarter-on-quarter data justify speculation... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Near-term outlook bright, but recession looms next year Speculation about a temporary double-dip in Japan’s economy by the middle of this year is missing a much bigger threat. We still expect growth to surprise the markets on the upside for a few quarters... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan the next Greece? Japan should be able to avoid the sort of crisis that has hit Greece so hard. Government debt may be even larger in Japan, but the country is in a much stronger position in almost every other respect. 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read