Japan Economics Update Lending survey indicates moderate recovery in Q3 The economic slowdown following March’s disaster caused loan demand from Japanese households and firms to fall sharply in Q2. According to the latest Senior Loan Officer Survey, demand is expected to... 21st July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still (too) optimistic about growth The Bank of Japan today acknowledged that growth prospects for FY2011 will be somewhat lower than it forecast even in April due to the downturn immediately after the earthquake, but it did not think... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the Bank of Japan propping up the equity market? The Bank of Japan appears to be timing its purchases of equity ETFs to support the stock market whenever the Topix falls by more than 1%. However, developments in global markets, and in the yen... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Doubling of consumption tax still not enough Japan’s DPJ-led administration finally seems ready to bow to the inevitable and double the country’s consumption tax over the next five years. However, this might not be enough to pay for the... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Worst nearly over but recovery fragile Japanese industry appears to be overcoming the initial disruption caused by the earthquake. Industrial production started to recover in April and is expected to rebound through May and June. The... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling exports turn trade balance negative Japan registered her first seasonally-adjusted trade deficit in two years in April. Exports not only failed to increase after the initial disruption caused by the earthquake but also fell further... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to announce further easing by year-end Even though Deputy Governor Kiyohiko Nishimura today dropped his call for another increase in the asset purchases, our view is still that it is only a question of “when”, rather than “if”, the Bank of... 20th May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan's forecasts too sanguine The revised growth forecasts published today by the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board do not, in our opinion, adequately reflect the damage caused by the recent natural disaster. This is probably due to a... 28th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Exports drop after earthquake disruption Japanese trade took a sharp turn for the worse in March after the earthquake and tsunami disrupted production and damaged infrastructure. The trade surplus fell to its lowest level in two years as... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Slump in consumer confidence to deepen recession Most analysis of the impact of the recent natural disaster on Japan’s economy has focused on the impact on production. However, the fundamental drivers of consumer spending were already weak before... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to "wait and see" There were no major policy initiatives from the Bank of Japan today and we do not anticipate any at the second April meeting either. This might bring the decline in the yen to a temporary halt, but we... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Full year recession in 2011 Signs that the initial blow to economic activity will be even larger than first feared have prompted us to revise our 2011 forecast down further. We now expect Japan’s GDP to fall outright by 1.5%... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan before and after the earthquake The breakdown of the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey of business conditions into pre- and post-earthquake responses showed that conditions were already expected to weaken before the disaster and are now... 4th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How will reconstruction be financed? Japan’s economy will eventually recover from the Tohoku-Pacific Ocean earthquake as the initial disruption to activity is replaced by a surge in spending on reconstruction. However, the boost to... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update When will the effects of the earthquake show in the data? This Update provides a calendar to show when the devastation caused by the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan on 11th March should start to appear in the regular economic data. 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update GDP likely to contract for three quarters The range of views on the impact of the earthquake on Japan’s GDP remains remarkably wide and government estimates of the cost of repairing the damage, published today, appear to have caused even more... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
