Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan's forecasts too sanguine The revised growth forecasts published today by the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board do not, in our opinion, adequately reflect the damage caused by the recent natural disaster. This is probably due to a... 28th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Exports drop after earthquake disruption Japanese trade took a sharp turn for the worse in March after the earthquake and tsunami disrupted production and damaged infrastructure. The trade surplus fell to its lowest level in two years as... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Slump in consumer confidence to deepen recession Most analysis of the impact of the recent natural disaster on Japan’s economy has focused on the impact on production. However, the fundamental drivers of consumer spending were already weak before... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to "wait and see" There were no major policy initiatives from the Bank of Japan today and we do not anticipate any at the second April meeting either. This might bring the decline in the yen to a temporary halt, but we... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Full year recession in 2011 Signs that the initial blow to economic activity will be even larger than first feared have prompted us to revise our 2011 forecast down further. We now expect Japan’s GDP to fall outright by 1.5%... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan before and after the earthquake The breakdown of the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey of business conditions into pre- and post-earthquake responses showed that conditions were already expected to weaken before the disaster and are now... 4th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How will reconstruction be financed? Japan’s economy will eventually recover from the Tohoku-Pacific Ocean earthquake as the initial disruption to activity is replaced by a surge in spending on reconstruction. However, the boost to... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update When will the effects of the earthquake show in the data? This Update provides a calendar to show when the devastation caused by the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan on 11th March should start to appear in the regular economic data. 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update GDP likely to contract for three quarters The range of views on the impact of the earthquake on Japan’s GDP remains remarkably wide and government estimates of the cost of repairing the damage, published today, appear to have caused even more... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Natural disasters vs. financial shocks The economic costs of natural disasters, although nowhere near as important as the loss of life, are typically much less than those of major financial shocks. A discussion of why this is the case... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Longer recession, limited rebound Following last Friday’s earthquake and tsunami we are cutting our Japan GDP growth forecast for CY 2011 from 1.0% to zero. We were already expecting GDP to contract for a second successive quarter in... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Yen likely to weaken further in wake of disaster The economic and market impact of the terrible tragedy that has hit Japan will depend partly on the amount of the damage but also on who pays the bills. A large share of the cost will probably have to... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Earthquake increases chances of fiscal crisis The consequences of the major earthquake and tsunami that hit Miyagi Prefecture and other areas in north-eastern Japan today are not yet clear and the impact on local people is of course foremost in... 11th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan's assessment still too sanguine The conclusion of the Bank of Japan’s two-day Policy Board meeting was as close as these occasions can be to a non-event. However, the Bank’s economic view (upgraded today) looks over-optimistic and... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How much should we fear a consumption tax hike? In a parliamentary debate today Prime Minister Kan hinted that the government does not intend to raise Japan’s consumption tax until after the next Lower House elections, which are not scheduled to... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Downgrade not catastrophic but fiscal crisis looms S&P’s decision to downgrade Japan’s sovereign credit rating one notch (to AA-) today may not be a big deal in itself, but it supports our fears that 2011 will be the year when Japan’s dire fiscal... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read