Global Markets Update Yen to strengthen to 60 against the dollar The resilience of the yen and a reassessment of the relative strengths of the various pressures on the Japanese currency have prompted us to change the direction of our forecasts. We now expect the... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Households' and firms' borrowing remains depressed A lack of credit is not a constraint on the Japanese economy, a lack of demand is. According to the latest Senior Loan Officer Survey, loan demand from Japanese households and firms has not recovered... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Lending continuing to recover Bank lending fell again in September in year-on-year terms, but at its slowest rate in almost two years. Lending has already bottomed out on a month-on-month basis and the annual rate of change is set... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update One last gasp in September before recovery peters out The services PMI showed activity in the tertiary sector increasing in September but that the outlook for Q4 is weak. The economy is becoming more reliant on public spending to keep it ticking over as... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Spending under pressure from weak labour market The decline in labour cash earnings is symptomatic of the deterioration in labour market conditions. With fewer workers employed and each earning less, consumer spending is likely to come under... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Risks of a treble-dip growing as economy loses momentum The improvement in the Tankan survey in the third quarter supports other evidence that GDP will at least temporarily return to growth. However, the outlook appears poor, momentum is weak and without a... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Retail sales slump due to special factors but outlook weak The sharp fall in retail sales in August was mainly due to the unwinding of special factors that have supported spending over the last three months. Nonetheless, consumer confidence remains low and... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Exports struggle with weak global economy & strong yen Japan’s exporters face an uphill struggle for further growth due to the strong yen and slowing global economy, while imports are climbing due to Japan’s energy needs. Nonetheless, net trade is likely... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recession appears over but any recovery is fragile The government’s Business Outlook Survey provides further evidence that the Japanese economy returned to growth in Q3, which should also be reflected in next month’s Tankan. However, the recovery has... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will Japan follow Switzerland and cap the yen? The yen initially fell against the dollar following the Swiss move to set a formal limit on the strength of the franc. As it happens, we do not think that the authorities in Tokyo are ready to do the... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Vehicle sales: a good indicator of retail spending? Domestic vehicle sales in Japan appear to be closely correlated with both consumer confidence and retail sales. Recent sharp gyrations in the monthly retail sales data make understanding their... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Industrial recovery peters out The slowdown in industrial production growth in July suggests that the recovery in output may have largely run its course and that output may not fully recover to its pre-disaster level. 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Old economic problems for a new leader The election of a new prime minister is as unlikely to mark a change in the politics of Japan as it is to change the economic outlook. Whilst we sincerely hope new Prime Minister Noda can provide the... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Two (very different) scenarios for the yen Japan’s government appears to have changed course and dropped its attempt to weaken the yen in favour of mitigating the impact of a strong currency. For now we are sticking to our view that the yen... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Exports will struggle as global economy stays weak Now that the hard work of restoring shipments to pre-disaster levels is all but complete, Japan’s exporters face an uphill struggle to achieve further growth. Exports had been flat for a year before... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Growth to resume in H2, but headwinds linger Japan’s economy contracted again in Q2, despite a faster-than-expected recovery from March’s disaster. GDP should start to expand in Q3 as output continues to recover and reconstruction-related... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
