Global Markets Update A stronger yen likely to undermine Japan’s stock market Japan’s stock market has been on a roll. We do not expect the good times to last. Although we are revising up our end-2012 and end-2013 forecasts for the Nikkei 225 slightly, to 7,750 (versus 7,500... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for the yen The yen has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar in more than six months, with the exchange rate now just a whisker below 80. The principal catalysts for the weakening of the currency have... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Chinese New Year hits exports but trade deficit to continue Japan recorded its largest ever single-month trade deficit in January, as Chinese New Year holidays elsewhere in Asia caused exports to slump. Although the deficit should fall in February as the... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ easing and explicit target is step in right direction We welcome today’s move by the Bank of Japan to expand its Asset Purchase Scheme and formalise its inflation target. Although these moves should help support the economy and ease tensions in financial... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s stuttering economy to avoid technical recession The Japanese economy contracted in Q4 but is already showing signs of recovery. Reconstruction spending should initiate a return to growth in 2012, but it will be from a low starting point and in... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Some more encouraging signs on investment & confidence Today’s report on core machinery orders in December adds to the evidence that GDP contracted in Q4. However, it also points to a recovery in non-residential investment this year that should help the... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Uncertain outlook overshadows improving output Recent survey evidence has pointed to a further pick-up in economic activity in January, but also highlighted the considerable uncertainty in the economic environment. The results of January’s Economy... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Output stronger than expected but difficulties remain Industrial production surprised on the upside in December, and survey evidence points to another strong month in January. Whilst it is nice to get some good news on the Japanese economy, it is hard to... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update The end of Japan’s trade surpluses Japan today announced that it ran a full year merchandise trade deficit in 2011. Although one year’s deficit is relatively unimportant, we expect it will be repeated over the coming years. 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Rebound in orders doesn’t herald rising capex The rebound in core machinery orders in November reduces but does not extinguish our concerns that the recent upward trend in orders has come to an end. The economic outlook is not conducive to... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update December pick-up in activity is unlikely to last Recent survey evidence, including today’s Economy Watchers’ Survey, has indicated a pick-up in activity in December. However, the evidence also suggests that this is unlikely to continue as firms... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling exports point to GDP contraction in Q4 The weakening global economy and the strong yen are weighing heavily on Japanese exports and will probably mean GDP contracts in Q4. The downgrade by a domestic credit rating agency highlights the... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Global weakness prompts downgrade of GDP forecast Worse than expected results from the Tankan survey and deteriorating global conditions have prompted us to revise down our Japan GDP forecasts for 2012 and beyond. We continue to expect a full-year... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Rising risk of a triple dip The government’s Business Outlook Survey indicates a marked deterioration in conditions in Q4, and is consistent with a contraction in both the Q4 Tankan survey and GDP. The survey suggests the... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling core orders could point to sharper slowdown Month-to-month volatility in core machinery orders is nothing new. But the latest drop is unusually large and, coupled with evidence from the Economy Watchers’ Survey that business confidence is... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Industrial production up, but no momentum Disruption to Japanese industrial production from the floods in Thailand appears to be diminishing, boosting output. Beyond this, there is little momentum and even this is likely to wane as emerging... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
