Japan Economics Update Output stronger than expected but difficulties remain Industrial production surprised on the upside in December, and survey evidence points to another strong month in January. Whilst it is nice to get some good news on the Japanese economy, it is hard to... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update The end of Japan’s trade surpluses Japan today announced that it ran a full year merchandise trade deficit in 2011. Although one year’s deficit is relatively unimportant, we expect it will be repeated over the coming years. 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Rebound in orders doesn’t herald rising capex The rebound in core machinery orders in November reduces but does not extinguish our concerns that the recent upward trend in orders has come to an end. The economic outlook is not conducive to... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update December pick-up in activity is unlikely to last Recent survey evidence, including today’s Economy Watchers’ Survey, has indicated a pick-up in activity in December. However, the evidence also suggests that this is unlikely to continue as firms... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling exports point to GDP contraction in Q4 The weakening global economy and the strong yen are weighing heavily on Japanese exports and will probably mean GDP contracts in Q4. The downgrade by a domestic credit rating agency highlights the... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Global weakness prompts downgrade of GDP forecast Worse than expected results from the Tankan survey and deteriorating global conditions have prompted us to revise down our Japan GDP forecasts for 2012 and beyond. We continue to expect a full-year... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Rising risk of a triple dip The government’s Business Outlook Survey indicates a marked deterioration in conditions in Q4, and is consistent with a contraction in both the Q4 Tankan survey and GDP. The survey suggests the... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling core orders could point to sharper slowdown Month-to-month volatility in core machinery orders is nothing new. But the latest drop is unusually large and, coupled with evidence from the Economy Watchers’ Survey that business confidence is... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Industrial production up, but no momentum Disruption to Japanese industrial production from the floods in Thailand appears to be diminishing, boosting output. Beyond this, there is little momentum and even this is likely to wane as emerging... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Labour market fragile, but not deteriorating Japan’s labour market is weaker than at the start of the year but the sharp rise in the unemployment rate in October makes conditions look worse than they are. The economy is not shedding jobs, but... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Exports will likely be a drag on GDP The sharp fall in exports in October was in part the result of the floods in Thailand. However, exports have been sluggish for over a year and are likely to remain weak due to slowing global growth... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Capital spending coming under pressure Today’s sharp fall in core machinery orders for September signals a slowdown in their upward trend. Worryingly, manufacturers expect this trend to turn negative in Q4. As orders are a good indicator... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update An improvement in October but recovery still fragile Recent survey based evidence, including today’s Economy Watchers’ Survey, has indicated a pick-up in activity in October following three consecutive months of decline. However, a continued recovery is... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renewed yen strength to keep Japan’s stock market weak Intervention by the Japanese authorities to weaken the yen has failed to prop up the country’s ailing stock market. Admittedly, the slide in equity prices has been due to renewed concerns about the... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Yen intervention could be a one day wonder Today’s unilateral intervention has only succeeded in weakening the yen a little (from around 75.6 per dollar to 79.5, then back to 77.9) and is unlikely to be enough to turn the tide. Meanwhile, the... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ expands asset purchases but needs to do more Currency markets brushed off the latest expansion to the Bank of Japan’s asset purchase scheme, sending the yen back through 76 to the dollar shortly after the announcement. Although we think it... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
