Japan Economics Update Retail sales jump flattered by temporary factors The surprisingly strong rise in Japanese retail sales in February largely reflects a number of temporary factors, including an extra shopping day due to the leap year and earthquake-related insurance... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan to signal return to anaemic growth The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey for March (to be released on Monday) will probably show a small improvement in business conditions in the first quarter, consistent with a return to growth in GDP, as... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Net exports on course to boost Q1 GDP Japan’s export figures saw a marked improvement in February amid signs of recovery in the global economy. As things stand, net exports could boost Q1 GDP by up to 0.4%, helping the economy return to... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Reconstruction to drive improvement in Business conditions The government’s Business Outlook Survey indicates conditions deteriorated slightly Q1, consistent with a further contraction in both the Q1 Tankan and GDP. However, the survey also suggests a rapid... 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Further monetary easing in the pipeline The Bank of Japan’s decision to extend its support for lending to “growth sectors” rather than add to its Asset Purchase Program (APP) today appears to have disappointed some but was the outcome that... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Fragile recovery still needs more policy support February’s household survey, released today, suggests that Japan’s consumers still lack confidence in the recovery, while the January data on core machinery orders do not yet justify hopes of a strong... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Current account deficit a one-off Japan’s current account swung into deficit in January, but this was mainly the result of seasonal factors and the deficit is likely to be reversed in February. Nonetheless this acts as a reminder of... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Industrial production points to a return to growth January’s increase in industrial production and forecasts for further rises in February and March point to a return to GDP growth in Q1. However, further increases in output beyond Q1 are far from... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Jump in retail sales due to temporary factors The sharp rise in retail spending in January does not herald a resurgence in consumer spending. Sales are likely to drop back when one-off supports, such as the temporary reintroduction of the eco-car... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A stronger yen likely to undermine Japan’s stock market Japan’s stock market has been on a roll. We do not expect the good times to last. Although we are revising up our end-2012 and end-2013 forecasts for the Nikkei 225 slightly, to 7,750 (versus 7,500... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for the yen The yen has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar in more than six months, with the exchange rate now just a whisker below 80. The principal catalysts for the weakening of the currency have... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Chinese New Year hits exports but trade deficit to continue Japan recorded its largest ever single-month trade deficit in January, as Chinese New Year holidays elsewhere in Asia caused exports to slump. Although the deficit should fall in February as the... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ easing and explicit target is step in right direction We welcome today’s move by the Bank of Japan to expand its Asset Purchase Scheme and formalise its inflation target. Although these moves should help support the economy and ease tensions in financial... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s stuttering economy to avoid technical recession The Japanese economy contracted in Q4 but is already showing signs of recovery. Reconstruction spending should initiate a return to growth in 2012, but it will be from a low starting point and in... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Some more encouraging signs on investment & confidence Today’s report on core machinery orders in December adds to the evidence that GDP contracted in Q4. However, it also points to a recovery in non-residential investment this year that should help the... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Uncertain outlook overshadows improving output Recent survey evidence has pointed to a further pick-up in economic activity in January, but also highlighted the considerable uncertainty in the economic environment. The results of January’s Economy... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
