Japan Economics Update Slighter better trade data still little to cheer The March data on exports and the overall trade balance were marginally better than the consensus had expected, but the detail is less encouraging. In particular, the improvement in exports probably... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Boost to confidence from “Abenomics” may be waning Consumer confidence rose in March, but by less than expected. What’s more, Japanese households may not view the prospect of an end to deflation quite as positively as businesses and investors. 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More downside for yen than upside for Nikkei? The much more ambitious policy stance adopted by the Bank of Japan should keep the yen on a weakening trend, but the scope for a further boost to Japan’s stock market may be limited. 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ sets high bar to establish credibility By committing today to meet a 2% inflation target in two years, Governor Kuroda can justifiably claim to have set the Bank of Japan on a new path. But while markets have welcomed the announcement, the... 4th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Small business survey raises some warning flags The headlines from the latest small business survey are positive but the detail includes some potentially worrying signs that the economic recovery may already be running out of steam. 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Positive wealth effects from equity gains still limited The latest Flow of Funds report, published today by the Bank of Japan, confirms that the surge in equity prices on the back of the “Abe trade” has boosted the value of household assets, but also that... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Trade data show yen weakness has costs as well as benefits The seasonally-adjusted trade deficit widened to a new record in February, reflecting a mix of sluggishness in key export markets, Lunar New Year distortions and the impact of yen weakness on the cost... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) High hopes are resting on the ability of the Bank of Japan’s new leadership to revitalise the economy. A look at the latest monetary aggregates underlines the challenges they face. 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Business and consumer surveys up but details not so good The improvements in the headline indices from the government’s quarterly Business Outlook Survey and the latest monthly report on consumer confidence provide further evidence that Japan’s economy is... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Improving sentiment yet to be matched in investment The slump in machinery orders in January illustrates the divergence between the improvement in sentiment in financial markets and what is actually happening on the ground. Of course, it is too soon to... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan awaits Kuroda but will surely move in April The Bank of Japan’s decision to leave policy on hold today was widely expected in the light of the leadership changes due later this month. Two Board members did propose tweaks to the framework which... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Higher inflation not necessarily good news for workers The year-on-year increase in labour cash earnings in January was flattered by late payments of winter bonuses. Underlying wage growth is still negative, meaning that households have been relying on... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Industry recovering but still plenty for Kuroda to do The smaller-than-expected increase in industrial production in January is a reminder of the fragility of the recovery in Japan, and perhaps in global activity too. The output projections made by firms... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Global demand, not yen, behind export recovery While the headlines have focussed on the size of Japan’s merchandise trade deficit last month, the more important development in the latest trade data was the strength of exports. We suspect that a... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Slide back into recession bad news but old news The small contraction in Q4 and revisions to back data mean that Japanese GDP fell in each of the last three quarters of 2012. However, more timely monthly indicators and surveys already show that the... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese consumers confident in “Abenomics” The jump in consumer confidence in January underlines just how big a task the Abe government has to meet the high expectations now spreading well beyond the financial markets. However, the improvement... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
