Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) High hopes are resting on the ability of the Bank of Japan’s new leadership to revitalise the economy. A look at the latest monetary aggregates underlines the challenges they face. 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Business and consumer surveys up but details not so good The improvements in the headline indices from the government’s quarterly Business Outlook Survey and the latest monthly report on consumer confidence provide further evidence that Japan’s economy is... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Improving sentiment yet to be matched in investment The slump in machinery orders in January illustrates the divergence between the improvement in sentiment in financial markets and what is actually happening on the ground. Of course, it is too soon to... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan awaits Kuroda but will surely move in April The Bank of Japan’s decision to leave policy on hold today was widely expected in the light of the leadership changes due later this month. Two Board members did propose tweaks to the framework which... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Higher inflation not necessarily good news for workers The year-on-year increase in labour cash earnings in January was flattered by late payments of winter bonuses. Underlying wage growth is still negative, meaning that households have been relying on... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Industry recovering but still plenty for Kuroda to do The smaller-than-expected increase in industrial production in January is a reminder of the fragility of the recovery in Japan, and perhaps in global activity too. The output projections made by firms... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Global demand, not yen, behind export recovery While the headlines have focussed on the size of Japan’s merchandise trade deficit last month, the more important development in the latest trade data was the strength of exports. We suspect that a... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Slide back into recession bad news but old news The small contraction in Q4 and revisions to back data mean that Japanese GDP fell in each of the last three quarters of 2012. However, more timely monthly indicators and surveys already show that the... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese consumers confident in “Abenomics” The jump in consumer confidence in January underlines just how big a task the Abe government has to meet the high expectations now spreading well beyond the financial markets. However, the improvement... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Q4 GDP probably still fell despite recovery in orders The continued recovery in machinery orders in December suggests that business investment is on the mend. On balance, we still think that GDP contracted for a second successive quarter in Q4 2012... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Hopes of smooth handover at the BoJ may be wishful thinking Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa’s announcement that he intends to leave office in March, a few weeks early, might ease the transition to a new leadership team. However, his move may not advance the... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal credibility starting to unravel Hopes that yet more fiscal stimulus will transform the prospects for Japan’s economy, or at least make a meaningful difference to GDP in the next year or so, are overdone. The government’s credibility... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Record trade deficit only partly due to yen strength Japan’s record trade deficit in 2012 mainly reflected the fragility of the global economic recovery and a persistently high bill for energy imports, with currency strength playing a secondary role... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) A lack of demand, rather than the level of interest rates or problems with credit supply, remains the key factor holding back broad monetary growth in Japan. 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Should we worry about the Bank of Japan’s independence? The Bank of Japan’s adoption of an explicit 2% inflation target after this was called for by the new government has added to fears that central banks worldwide will be forced to monetise public debt... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan’s policy overhaul fails to impress Despite the much-hyped announcement of “open-ended easing” to meet a new 2% inflation target, today’s policy overhaul by the Bank of Japan disappoints in many respects. In particular, the ceiling on... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
