Japan Economics Update What do the Q2 GDP data mean for the consumption tax? Last week India appointed Raghuram Rajan, a former chief economist at the IMF, as the new governor of the Reserve Bank (RBI). The new governor takes over at a tricky time, with India’s economy... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan may still have to ease further The Bank of Japan’s decision today to refrain from any additional easing on top of that already planned reflects the Board’s conviction that the measures taken so far are working. But with signs... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Trans-Pacific Partnership talks to test PM Abe’s resolve Japan’s formal entry into negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) today is only the first step on a long road. Indeed, the talks are likely to drag on well into next year, and perhaps... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Nuclear energy restart not a game changer A partial resumption of nuclear energy generation is unlikely to reduce Japan’s trade deficit meaningfully. Electricity prices could fall slightly, but are likely to remain very high compared to... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) There are now some tentative signs that broad money supply is responding to the Bank of Japan’s more aggressive easing. Since April the broadest money measure has increased at the fastest pace in y/y... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Time to shift the focus to “core-core” inflation? Media reports suggest that the Japanese government plans to focus increasingly on the CPI excluding food and energy when gauging progress towards overcoming deflation. We do not expect this to make... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan may still have more work to do The increasingly upbeat tone of the Bank of Japan’s comments on the economic recovery has dampened consensus expectations of additional monetary easing (on top of that already planned). However, a... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Confidence in “Abenomics” still high, but waning The fall in consumer confidence in June suggests that the Abe government’s honeymoon period with the public is coming to an end. Sentiment remains at relatively high levels and could pick up again in... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Economy Watchers Survey suggests recovery is slowing The headline indices from today’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) are still at high levels, but the larger-than-expected falls in June point to slower growth in Q2 and beyond than in Q1. While other... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Rising wages needed to keep up with higher prices Today’s official release confirmed that labour cash earnings were still subdued in May, but we can already be confident that higher summer bonuses will deliver much better headlines for June and July... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan confirms recovery on track Today’s Tankan survey confirms that Japan 's economy is continuing to recover, albeit gradually. The survey is based on replies received up until just a few days before publication, so it is... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Small firms shrug off market volatility The improvement in small business confidence in June shows that “Abenomics” is continuing to deliver real benefits despite the volatility in the financial markets. However, the detail of the Shoko... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) As the Fed prepares to taper its program of quantitative easing, there are some concerns in Asia that it could trigger a messy re-run of 1994. We think these concerns are exaggerated. 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Surge in exports not quite as good as it looks The double-digit rise in Japan’s export revenues in May is clearly welcome and should be reflected in higher summer bonuses. However, the import bill is also surging and export volumes remain subdued... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What's behind the rebound in the yen? The rebound in the yen and associated weakness in Japanese equities reflect fears about the outlooks for monetary policy in both Japan and the US. However, these fears look increasingly overdone. 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
