Japan Economics Update Falling real wages partly mitigated by rising employment The threat to the economic recovery from falling real wages may not be as big as many fear, given the trade-off between higher pay or more job creation. Nonetheless, consumers are understandably far... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Could the market turmoil derail Japan's recovery? The last time that the consumption tax was hiked, in 1997, Japan was tipped into recession shortly afterwards by a regional financial crisis. History appears at risk of repeating itself. However, many... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Nuclear shutdown not the main reason for surging trade deficit The widening in Japan's trade deficit is often attributed to a surge in energy imports as a result of the nuclear shutdown. However, the jump in the energy import bill is mostly due to the impact of... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ still likely to ease more as dissenting voices increase The Bank of Japan threw no surprises in its monetary policy decision today and is under no immediate pressure to announce further easing. But with some board members still unconvinced that the... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Could local politicians block the restart of nuclear energy? The upcoming gubernatorial election in Tokyo is being widely billed as a referendum on national energy policy, with one prominent candidate running on an anti-nuclear platform. However, the influence... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s tourism resurgence won’t do much for economy Tourist arrivals to Japan have surged over the past year. While this is good news for businesses that cater to visitors, the broader macroeconomic implication are minor. Tourism-related spending... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Undervaluation unlikely to prevent further yen weakness The yen is now “undervalued” on most measures. However, deviations from fundamental value can, of course, persist for a very long time and should not prove an obstacle to fresh declines. We continue... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan's caution underlines easing bias The Bank of Japan’s widely-anticipated decision to maintain its current policy settings for the tenth successive Board meeting today is a testament to the boldness and clarity of the monetary easing... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) Despite a sharp fall in the money multiplier, the growth rates of bank lending and broad money reached fresh highs in November. 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Talk of imminent monetary easing seems premature We continue to expect the Bank of Japan to announce further substantial monetary stimulus eventually, but those now speculating that it might act within the next few months are likely to be... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How disruptive are tensions with China? The recent escalation of the conflict over the Senkaku islands may lead to renewed disruption of bilateral trade and investment between Japan and China. The experience from last year’s flare-up in... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan likely to keep its inflation target With even some members of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board expecting inflation to remain well below the 2% target in FY 2015, there is growing speculation about how and when the Board will respond to... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan probably on hold until second half of 2014 The Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain the current pace of asset purchases after its Board meeting today was no surprise. Governor Kuroda emphasised the Bank’s willingness to ease further, but also... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) While the money supply grew at the fastest pace since the late 1990s in October, bank lending has decelerated slightly. But record low interest rates and easy lending standards should provide further... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Which indicators will be most affected by the sales tax hike? If Japan’s past is a guide, some spending will be brought forward ahead of April’s consumption tax hike and it will slump thereafter. The experience from the 1997 increase in the same tax suggests... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan in no hurry to ease further The BoJ today only marginally tweaked its economic forecasts, and took a sanguine view of the upcoming consumption tax hike. It was therefore no surprise that policy settings were left unchanged... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
