Japan Economics Update July easing seems to be off the table The optimistic tone of recent BoJ communication suggests that the chances of additional stimulus being announced as soon as July, as many had expected, have shrunk substantially. We however continue... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How much could higher female employment boost GDP? Raising female participation in the labour force to the same rate as that for men could boost Japan’s GDP by as much as 13%. However, no advanced economy has achieved parity on this basis, and a more... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.14) The latest Senior Loan Officer survey showed that banks expect household loan demand to weaken sharply in the second quarter. Borrowing is highly likely to slow now that the consumption tax hike has... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ divisions underline case for more easing It came as no surprise that the BoJ left policy unchanged today and sounded confident about the prospects of hitting its inflation target. However, not all Board members are convinced that the 2%... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar 14.) The expansion in the broad money aggregates has ground to a halt in the last two months. Bank lending is slowing now, too, even though financial conditions remain very accommodative. 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Poor consumer sentiment adds to PM Abe’s challenges The collapse in consumer confidence shows that Japanese households lost their enthusiasm for “Abenomics” well before investor appetite for Japanese equities began to wane. 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Expectations of mid-year easing likely to be disappointed The markets may be disappointed in coming months as we think the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce further monetary easing later than many expect. We continue to favour October, rather than July. 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal consolidation continues despite “record” spending The “record” ¥95.9 trillion in budgeted expenditure for the coming fiscal year does not mean that the government has given up on fiscal consolidation. But its medium-term targets are still likely to... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is bank lending a reliable gauge of Japan's economy? Bank lending is a widely watched indicator of the health of Japan's economy. However, for a number of reasons, it may be less useful than many think. 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The expansion in the broad money supply ground to a halt in February, and the annual growth rates may well have peaked for now. However, the fundamentals for a further acceleration in bank lending... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update No great urgency for additional monetary stimulus The Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain its current policy settings at today’s Board meeting was no surprise. While we remain convinced that further easing will eventually be required (over and above... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Stalling talks set back hopes for TPP as catalyst for reform Slow progress in the talks aimed at setting up the Trans-Pacific Partnership has set back hopes that the trade deal could be a catalyst for structural reform in Japan. Japan’s high tariffs on many... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bad weather unlikely to have major effect on output Adverse weather in recent days is unlikely to have a major effect on output, as most of it occurred at the weekend and plant closures are unlikely to last long. Historical experience also indicates... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan again signals readiness to ease further The Bank of Japan’s decision to extend and expand the special loan facilities that were due to expire next month is a largely symbolic move that will not have a significant impact on financial... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Q4 GDP not as bad as headlines imply Although the preliminary estimate of GDP growth in the final quarter of last year fell short of expectations, it is not the major blow to the credibility of “Abenomics” that some have suggested. 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan 14.) The annual growth rate of the money supply seems to be levelling off, and is likely to remain broadly stable in coming months. By contrast, bank lending may still accelerate further as loan demand... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
