Japan Economics Update Fiscal consolidation continues despite “record” spending The “record” ¥95.9 trillion in budgeted expenditure for the coming fiscal year does not mean that the government has given up on fiscal consolidation. But its medium-term targets are still likely to... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is bank lending a reliable gauge of Japan's economy? Bank lending is a widely watched indicator of the health of Japan's economy. However, for a number of reasons, it may be less useful than many think. 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The expansion in the broad money supply ground to a halt in February, and the annual growth rates may well have peaked for now. However, the fundamentals for a further acceleration in bank lending... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update No great urgency for additional monetary stimulus The Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain its current policy settings at today’s Board meeting was no surprise. While we remain convinced that further easing will eventually be required (over and above... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Stalling talks set back hopes for TPP as catalyst for reform Slow progress in the talks aimed at setting up the Trans-Pacific Partnership has set back hopes that the trade deal could be a catalyst for structural reform in Japan. Japan’s high tariffs on many... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bad weather unlikely to have major effect on output Adverse weather in recent days is unlikely to have a major effect on output, as most of it occurred at the weekend and plant closures are unlikely to last long. Historical experience also indicates... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan again signals readiness to ease further The Bank of Japan’s decision to extend and expand the special loan facilities that were due to expire next month is a largely symbolic move that will not have a significant impact on financial... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Q4 GDP not as bad as headlines imply Although the preliminary estimate of GDP growth in the final quarter of last year fell short of expectations, it is not the major blow to the credibility of “Abenomics” that some have suggested. 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan 14.) The annual growth rate of the money supply seems to be levelling off, and is likely to remain broadly stable in coming months. By contrast, bank lending may still accelerate further as loan demand... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling real wages partly mitigated by rising employment The threat to the economic recovery from falling real wages may not be as big as many fear, given the trade-off between higher pay or more job creation. Nonetheless, consumers are understandably far... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Could the market turmoil derail Japan's recovery? The last time that the consumption tax was hiked, in 1997, Japan was tipped into recession shortly afterwards by a regional financial crisis. History appears at risk of repeating itself. However, many... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Nuclear shutdown not the main reason for surging trade deficit The widening in Japan's trade deficit is often attributed to a surge in energy imports as a result of the nuclear shutdown. However, the jump in the energy import bill is mostly due to the impact of... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ still likely to ease more as dissenting voices increase The Bank of Japan threw no surprises in its monetary policy decision today and is under no immediate pressure to announce further easing. But with some board members still unconvinced that the... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Could local politicians block the restart of nuclear energy? The upcoming gubernatorial election in Tokyo is being widely billed as a referendum on national energy policy, with one prominent candidate running on an anti-nuclear platform. However, the influence... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s tourism resurgence won’t do much for economy Tourist arrivals to Japan have surged over the past year. While this is good news for businesses that cater to visitors, the broader macroeconomic implication are minor. Tourism-related spending... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Undervaluation unlikely to prevent further yen weakness The yen is now “undervalued” on most measures. However, deviations from fundamental value can, of course, persist for a very long time and should not prove an obstacle to fresh declines. We continue... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
