Japan Economics Update Inflation still likely to moderate despite recent yen weakness The impact of the recent weakening of the yen on consumer prices will be dampened by lower crude oil prices. The upshot is that CPI inflation is still likely to moderate towards year-end rather than... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ not yet ready to expand stimulus With policy settings again left unchanged, the key development at today’s Bank of Japan meeting was policymakers’ acknowledgement of the recent sluggishness of the economy. However, we still think... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Loan growth has remained stable in recent months though banks were predicting a sharp slowdown in lending following the sales tax hike. Nonetheless, we still think that borrowing will slow in the not... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Imminent easing by BoJ unlikely The BOJ left policy settings unchanged at today’s meeting, and provided no indications of imminent easing despite the recent weakness in the economy. However, inflation is likely to fall short of the... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Are part-time workers depressing wage growth? Growth in the share of part-time workers in Japan’s workforce is one factor being blamed for the recent sluggishness of wage growth. In reality, this shift has not had much of an impact on aggregate... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Why are Japan’s exports (still) not picking up? The continued sluggishness of exports in the face of significant yen depreciation reflects the fact that firms have been reluctant to lower prices, as well as weakness in global demand. But there are... 25th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Q2's inventory surge not necessarily a sign of trouble While large inventory build-ups usually spell trouble for future output, last quarter’s surge was largely the result of the one-off hit to demand from the sales tax hike. Overall, we still expect the... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) Bank lending continues to expand at a robust pace, but weaker loan demand should eventually lead to a slowdown. 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ may still have to step up pace of easing The BoJ left policy settings unchanged today, and may merely confirm that QQE will be maintained in its current form at the October meeting. However, we expect inflation to fall short of the Bank's... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ still likely to extend QQE despite upbeat inflation forecasts It came as no surprise that the BoJ left policy settings unchanged today and presented upbeat inflation forecasts, but we still think more easing will be announced in October. 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Even though bank lending has reaccelerated lately amid supportive financial conditions, a range of surveys suggest that credit growth will slow in coming months. 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Third arrow unlikely to boost potential growth significantly While the revised “Growth Strategy” appears to contain some promising elements, it is unlikely to lift Japan’s potential growth rate significantly. In particular, the document does not adequately... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update External trade (May) The trade deficit remained broadly unchanged in May, and should narrow slightly further in coming months. 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Rumours of QQE's end have been greatly exaggerated Even though the BoJ left policy unchanged today and provided no indication that additional stimulus will be forthcoming any time soon, we think that it is premature to write off further easing. 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May 14) The share of government bonds held by the BoJ has risen sharply since the start of QQE. Contrary to some suggestions, there are no compelling reasons why the central bank’s holdings can’t increase... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update For how much longer can the BoJ buy government bonds? While the share of government bonds held by the BoJ has risen sharply since the start of QQE, there are no compelling reasons why the central bank's holdings can’t increase much further. 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
