Japan Economics Update Weak price pressures will prevent BoJ from tightening A rising number of analysts believe that the BoJ will start tightening policy by the end of next year. But with inflation set to remain below its 2% target, we think that the Bank will keep policy... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The Bank of Japan has been warning that low policy rates could eventually prove contractionary if they depress banks’ profits and capital and reduce their willingness to lend. In reality though... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What to make of the surge in producer prices? Producer prices in Japan are rising at the fastest pace in years but we still expect consumer price inflation to remain broadly flat in coming months. 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will the Bank of Japan soon start to tighten? Recent comments by BoJ Board members have trigged speculation that the Bank is considering a gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus, in part to help Japan’s banks. But with inflation still rooted... 27th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Bank lending has slowed in recent months and the BoJ’s Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a further weakening in coming months. However, brisk corporate bond issuance and record corporate profits... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will Japan benefit from the TPP minus the US? Even after the withdrawal of the US, the TPP remains an ambitious free trade agreement that will lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers for Japanese firms in a number of important trading partners and... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How free is Japan’s trade? President Trump drew attention this week to the difficulties US firms face trading with Japan. Japan’s tariff barriers are typically lower than those in the US but non-tariff barriers are... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Has Japan overcome deflation? Suggestions from Japan’s government that it has vanquished deflation are premature when wages are barely rising, core inflation is close to zero and inflation expectations are lower than a few years... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ unlikely to tighten anytime soon The Bank of Japan still expects growth to exceed its sustainable rate both this year and next. However, sluggish price pressures forced the Board to slash its inflation forecasts yet again at today’s... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What to expect from PM Abe’s fourth term? We are re-sending this publication because the previous one contained an error. Mr Abe is now entering his fourth term as Prime Minister. Fiscal policy will probably be tightened further during PM Abe... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Credit growth slowed slightly in the second quarter but remains very strong by past standards. However, this has yet to result in a marked increase in private sector indebtedness. 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ’s JGB purchases to slow further The Bank of Japan’s purchases of JGBs have now fallen to around ¥60 trillion per annum and they are likely to be cut further to ¥40 trillion over the next couple of years. However, this shouldn’t have... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What would Yurinomics mean for Japan? Yuriko Koike’s Party of Hope has pledged to rely less on loose fiscal and monetary policy if it wins the upcoming election. But in practice its proposals, which include delaying the sales tax hike... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Snap election puts tax hike back onto agenda Japan’s ruling coalition should emerge victorious from the upcoming Lower House elections but “Abenomics” has long since run out of momentum and so there is little prospect of meaningful structural... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ’s growth optimism won’t translate into tighter policy The Bank of Japan left its upbeat assessment of economic conditions intact at today’s meeting. But inflation remains a long way below its projections, so further reductions in the Board’s forecasts... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Snap elections could leave PM Abe with last laugh With the opposition in disarray and support for the ruling coalition rebounding, the government may well retain its two-thirds majority in the Lower House if it called a snap election. The chances of... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
