Japan Economics Update What to expect from PM Abe's third term? Mr Abe will almost certainly win the LDP’s leadership elections next month, allowing him to stay Prime Minister for another three years. While fiscal policy will probably be tightened a little further... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Would abolishing cash help overcome deflation? Abolishing cash would allow the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates deeper into negative territory. But in a society where cash transactions are still widespread, such a move would prove deeply... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ signals no change for a long time to come The Bank of Japan made some technical adjustments to its policy framework today. But its key message, which it emphasised with the introduction of explicit forward guidance, was that the main policy... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How much longer can QQE remain in place? The BoJ has been able to drastically slow the pace of its acquisition of Japanese Government Bonds since it adopted a 0% yield target, which should quells doubts about the policy’s long-run viability... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will the BoJ lower its inflation target? The Bank of Japan’s admission that inflation won’t reach its 2% target anytime soon has generated speculation that the target will be lowered at the meeting later this month. By contrast, we believe... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plunging unemployment not enough for the BoJ The recent plunge in Japan’s jobless rate suggests that wage growth will pick up faster than we had been anticipating. But we suspect that unemployment is now close to a floor so wage growth may never... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What to make of the surge in second-hand sales? Despite rapid growth, sales of second-hand goods remain too low to constitute a major threat to retailers. Their rising popularity reflects the increased convenience of electronic platforms rather... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ still holding fast to ultra-loose policy The Bank of Japan has recently been expressing greater concern about the impact of ultra-loose monetary policy on financial stability. But Governor Kuroda today insisted that the key focus of policy... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update US auto tariffs would trigger retaliation from Japan The imposition of high tariffs on car imports that the US is considering would have a palpable impact on economic activity in Japan. This may be another empty threat by the Trump administration, but... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will probably reduce its ETF purchases The BoJ could continue buying ETFs at the current pace for a long time since its purchases are small relative to the size of the stock market. But the Bank reckons that the stock market is now close... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What do higher energy prices mean for Japan? The recent jump in crude oil prices will give a significant lift to inflation in Japan, taking it somewhat closer to the Bank of Japan’s target, but only for a short while. For a large net energy... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Purchases of government bonds by the Bank of Japan have stabilised over the past six months. But the rate at which its holdings are growing has continued to slow as its bonds are now maturing at a... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Ageing unlikely to lower productivity growth any further Population ageing explains little of the recent slowdown in productivity growth. And with the pace of greying not picking up any further, we expect productivity growth to rebound to 1% per annum over... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update 2% inflation target remains out of reach The Bank of Japan today refrained from providing a concrete timeframe for hitting its 2% inflation target for the first time since Governor Kuroda took over. This highlights that policymakers have... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) Bank lending has continued to slow in recent months. However, banks’ willingness to provide credit has rarely been higher, and broader measures of credit that also include corporate bonds show that... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What would a US-China trade war mean for Japan? The proposed tariffs on bilateral imports between the US and China would only have a small direct impact on Japan. Nor would Japan benefit much if buyers looked for cheaper alternatives. A further... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
