Japan Economics Update New BoJ leadership will stay the course Sluggish wage growth, subdued inflation expectations and the renewed strengthening of the exchange rate suggest that inflation will remain below the Bank’s 2% target for the foreseeable future. The... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How will Japan react to the Trump tariffs? Japanese officials have good reasons to take the imposition of US tariffs on steel and aluminium in their stride. The US would have to target a more important industry to provoke Japan to retaliate... 7th March 2018 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan unlikely to buy foreign bonds An advisor to PM Abe has suggested that the Bank of Japan should buy foreign bonds. However, economic conditions are far too buoyant at the moment for policymakers to take such a radical step. 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Bank lending has continued to slow and Japanese banks are no longer gaining market share in the cross-border lending market. However, one reason is that non-financial firms are increasingly turning to... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Policy to remain loose under new BoJ leadership Governor Kuroda looks likely to be reappointed as Bank of Japan Governor when his current term ends in April. It is still unclear who his two deputies will be, but the main candidates are mostly in... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Rethinking the yen The yen has strengthened in recent months even though investors are now anticipating a more aggressive pace of tightening by the US Fed. While we expect US long-term interest rates to end this year a... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ underscores line in the sand The Bank of Japan’s offer to buy an unlimited amount of bonds today for the first time since July has dampened expectations that policymakers are about to withdraw stimulus. As a result, the yen has... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Foreign workers continue to ease labour shortages One widely-overlooked factor driving Japan’s growth in recent years has been a surge in the number of foreign workers. This appears to be continuing, as employers face labour shortages and recent... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan too optimistic about inflation outlook For the first time since July 2014, the Bank of Japan didn’t lower its inflation forecasts any further. However, we believe that the Bank is too optimistic about the inflation outlook and we remain... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Bank lending has continued to slow. However, this doesn’t seem to reflect a tightening in bank lending attitudes, which remain very accommodative. What’s more, overall borrowing by the private sector... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the Bank of Japan about to raise its yield target? This week’s reduction in the Bank of Japan’s scheduled government bond purchases doesn’t signal that it is about to lift the yield target. The Bank purchases whatever is needed to maintain the target... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Price pressures strengthening again Japan’s November activity data suggest that the economy recorded an eighth consecutive quarter ofgrowth in Q4. And with the labour market the tightest in at least two decades, underlying... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Weak price pressures will prevent BoJ from tightening A rising number of analysts believe that the BoJ will start tightening policy by the end of next year. But with inflation set to remain below its 2% target, we think that the Bank will keep policy... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The Bank of Japan has been warning that low policy rates could eventually prove contractionary if they depress banks’ profits and capital and reduce their willingness to lend. In reality though... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What to make of the surge in producer prices? Producer prices in Japan are rising at the fastest pace in years but we still expect consumer price inflation to remain broadly flat in coming months. 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will the Bank of Japan soon start to tighten? Recent comments by BoJ Board members have trigged speculation that the Bank is considering a gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus, in part to help Japan’s banks. But with inflation still rooted... 27th November 2017 · 1 min read
