Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan Meeting (Dec.) The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged today and Governor Kuroda’s dovish comments suggest that policy tightening remains a long way off. 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The yen’s days as a safe haven are probably not over While doubts have been raised over whether the Japanese yen remains a safe haven in light of its poor performance in the summer, we think that the currency will retain this status for the foreseeable... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s high public debt not a reassuring example for others Even though Japan’s “true” level of government debt is not as high as the commonly-watched gross measure suggests, it is still far higher than elsewhere. The ease with which Japan nonetheless copes... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Further stock market falls won’t drag on spending Japan’s stock market has already fallen by 11% since its recent peak in early October, and we expect further declines in 2019 as equity prices tumble in the US and the yen strengthens. But this won’t... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plans to offset sales tax hike won’t stop spending slump The measures under consideration to offset the damage from next year’s sales tax hike may help to soften the blow if big enough. But they are unlikely to prevent a fall in domestic demand. 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plunging phone charges another headwind for BoJ The steep cut to mobile phone charges announced by Japan’s largest wireless operator last week means that consumer price inflation may average only 1.0% next year rather than the 1.2% we had been... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Downbeat BoJ unlikely to tighten anytime soon The Bank of Japan seems to be getting a little more worried about the impact of prolonged easing on financial stability. However, the looming sales tax hike and the downgrade to the BoJ’s inflation... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What to expect from three more years of Abenomics? Mr Abe will remain Prime Minister for another three years. That means fiscal policy will probably be tightened further, monetary policy will remain loose and policymakers may take some further steps... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Mounting risks suggest BoJ on hold for longer The Bank of Japan today reiterated its pledge to keep rates low for a prolonged period. With the sales tax hike looming and inflation set to remain below target for longer, we think that the Bank will... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Could the sales tax hike be delayed again? Japan’s government has long argued that the sales tax hike scheduled for next year is needed to improve the fiscal position. With the economy performing extremely well at the moment, Mr Abe has no... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ not doing the twist after all The increase in the volume of the Bank of Japan’s bond auctions merely offsets a reduction in their frequency and won’t alter the overall pace of purchases much. The bigger point is that those... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the BoJ doing the twist? Today’s shift in the Bank of Japan’s bond purchases shouldn’t be interpreted as a signal that the 10-year target will be raised anytime soon. Note added post-publication: In this Update, we suggest... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update The impact on Japan of a trade war Even if it escalates, the trade dispute between the US and China shouldn’t do significant damage to Japan’s economy. US tariffs on Japanese vehicles would be a greater concern, while a blanket US... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What to expect from PM Abe's third term? Mr Abe will almost certainly win the LDP’s leadership elections next month, allowing him to stay Prime Minister for another three years. While fiscal policy will probably be tightened a little further... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Would abolishing cash help overcome deflation? Abolishing cash would allow the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates deeper into negative territory. But in a society where cash transactions are still widespread, such a move would prove deeply... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ signals no change for a long time to come The Bank of Japan made some technical adjustments to its policy framework today. But its key message, which it emphasised with the introduction of explicit forward guidance, was that the main policy... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
