Japan Economics Update How vulnerable is Japan to supply chain disruptions? Manufacturers in Japan are on the whole less dependent on imported components than those in other major rich economies and so are less vulnerable to global supply chain disruption. But there’s a... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Coronavirus will force Bank of Japan to cut rates Two developments over the past couple of days have caused us to change our thinking on the outlook for monetary policy in Japan. We now assume that the coronavirus will spread widely across most of... 3rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update How will the BoJ respond to the coronavirus? We suspect that the BoJ’s response to the coronavirus will mostly consist of liquidity provision to banks and a renewed acceleration of its ETF purchases. We are not forecasting a cut in the Bank’s... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Olympic cancellation wouldn’t be an economic shock With the number of confirmed infections of the new coronavirus rising in Japan, cancellation or postponement of this year’s Tokyo Olympics is becoming a possibility worth considering. The key point in... 21st February 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Coronavirus to knock off 0.3% from GDP this year A slump in tourist arrivals has been the initial channel through which the virus outbreak in China has harmed Japan’s economy and will most likely knock around 0.4%-pts off GDP growth in Q1. As long... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Will the BoJ introduce a digital currency? Cash is still widely used in Japan and amid concerns about the impact on financial stability, a central bank digital currency for retail transactions is unlikely to be introduced anytime soon. There’s... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Capacity shortages to ease, but not enough for rate cut The Bank of Japan shocked no one in leaving its major policy settings unchanged today. And with obstacles to further easing high, the slight fall in capacity shortages we are expecting this year won’t... 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan on prolonged hold The Bank of Japan didn’t surprise anyone by keeping interest rates unchanged today and we think it will remain on hold for the foreseeable future. 19th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal stimulus won’t boost growth much The fiscal stimulus package unveiled today will include much less fresh spending than the headline suggests. And the bulk of the spending will merely offset the unwinding of previous stimulus measures... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Should the BoJ target shorter bond yields? The IMF has suggested that the Bank of Japan could target shorter bond yields in order to steepen the yield curve and support the profitability of financial institutions. But the benefits to insurance... 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Impact of Korean conflict set to remain limited The tensions between Korea and Japan are unlikely to end anytime soon. That suggests that tourist arrivals may fall further and Koreans will continue to boycott Japanese consumer goods. However, Japan... 20th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to remain on hold next year The Bank of Japan left policy rates unchanged today and reiterated its readiness to ease policy if required. However, the background material to its “re-examination of economic and price developments“... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Muted price effect understates impact of tax hike At first glance, the impact of this month’s sales tax hike on inflation and so on real incomes will be small. Headline inflation will probably rise by only 0.4%-point in October. But that’s partly... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Could banks start charging savers if the BoJ cut rates? Recent suggestions that the Bank of Japan will cut its policy rate have fuelled speculation that Japanese banks might be forced to start passing on negative interest rates to savers. But given that... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update How much damage will the tax hike do? Tomorrow’s tax hike is likely to do less immediate damage to economic growth in Japan than previous increases. But it is still likely to trigger a sizeable fall in GDP in Q4. A rapid rebound next year... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
