Japan Economics Update Intervention wouldn’t prevent yen from strengthening While Japan’s government will almost certainly refrain from direct intervention on the foreign exchange markets to stem the recent appreciation of the yen, we can’t rule out that the government’s... 6th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Dovish talk but the usual walk The Bank of Japan projected a dovish tone today, promising further easing if needed. But unlike other major central banks the BoJ still seems a long way from following that up with action. We think it... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Credit boom bypassing the domestic economy Credit is growing at its strongest rate since the early 1990s. Given that investment growth has started to slow, the spike in private debt seems odd at first glance but much of it appears to have been... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Profit slump driven by weak demand, not rising wages The recent drop in corporate profits appears to have been driven by weak global demand rather than by rising wages. Accordingly, profits are likely to fall further over coming months even if we’re... 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Surge in participation rate nearing its end The surge in the participation rate that has boosted employment by nearly a tenth since 2012 and thereby underpinned stronger economic growth is running out of steam. This will have a big impact... 22nd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update What do nuclear restarts mean for Japan? Japan’s government will probably expand the number of operating nuclear reactors from nine now to 17 by 2030. While the impact on the trade balance will be tiny, electricity prices may fall... 15th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update A mini-bubble is building in Japan’s property market Froth has returned to Japan’s housing market, especially in urban areas where prices are now back to levels seen just before the collapse of the property bubble in the early nineties. A price... 10th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Will the conflict with Korea harm the economy? We suspect that the current tensions between Korea and Japan will subside after the Upper House elections. Even if Korean consumers decided to boycott Japanese products, the impact on Japan’s economy... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan sticking to its guns The Bank of Japan is showing no signs of shifting to a more dovish stance, despite the impending sales tax hike and moves towards easing by the Fed (and the ECB). As long as there is no sharp downturn... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the trade war impacting Japanese FDI? While there is growing anecdotal evidence of some Japanese firms shifting production of US-bound goods from China to Southeast Asia, the large size of China’s domestic market means that China will... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Implications of the escalating trade war The impact of the renewed escalation of trade tensions between the US and China on Japan’s economy should be small even allowing for second-round effects on financial markets and confidence. A bigger... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Policy to remain loose for the foreseeable future The Bank of Japan made it very clear that it will keep policy settings loose for at least another year. And while we expect GDP growth and inflation to disappoint, we think that concerns about the... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Twenty years of ZIRP, and counting Just over two decades after it first cut rates to zero, the Bank of Japan today left its policy settings unchanged and reiterated that the ultra-loose stance will be maintained for the foreseeable... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update The next downturn: lessons from Japan Faced with a severe downturn, developed economies would exhaust their conventional monetary policy tools quickly. At first sight, Japan’s experience suggests that even the bold use of unconventional... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan Meeting (Jan.) Economic growth is set to slow after October’s sales tax hike while inflation will remain well below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. But with high hurdles to additional policy easing, we think that the... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Activity & Labour Market Data (Nov.) Even though industrial production and retail sales fell rather sharply in November, both should have risen across the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate hasn’t fallen any further over... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
