Japan Economics Update Vaccines will hasten return to pre-virus economic path We now assume that one or more COVID-19 vaccines will be widely available in Japan next year, which suggests that the drag on activity from voluntary social distancing will come to an end. That should... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Benefits from RCEP set to be modest Given that Japan doesn’t have existing free trade agreements with either China or Korea, it is set to benefit more than other participants from the recently signed RCEP deal. However, tariffs will... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal response looks more muscular with tax deferrals We estimate that firms deferred around ¥17tn in tax and social security contributions during the state of emergency. Most of those deferrals will have to be paid back by mid-2021 but we suspect that... 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ to stay the course The Bank of Japan today revised up its outlook for GDP growth for the next couple of years, reducing the already scant chances of additional easing even further. 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Will equal pay for equal work raise labour costs? Recent court rulings clarifying the application of the government’s new “equal pay for equal work” law are unlikely to lead to higher labour costs for firms. Most firms already pay their irregular... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will keep policy unchanged The Bank of Japan’s decision to keep policy settings unchanged today didn’t come as a surprise and we don’t expect incoming PM Suga to push the Bank into policy rate cuts. 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update What shape will economic policy take post-Abe? Japan will very soon have a new Prime Minister. Close Abe aide Suga Yoshihide is the current front runner in the LDP leadership contest and would likely keep policy firmly on the course set by Mr Abe... 1st September 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ’s T-Bill purchases yet to boost the money supply The Bank of Japan’s recent purchases of Treasury Bills have yet to feed through into the money supply as the government’s deposit account at the Bank has ballooned. That will provide a further boost... 31st August 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Deflation set to deepen further The slump in underlying inflation in Tokyo in August was mostly driven by subsidies to domestic travel as part of the Go To travel campaign. But even when we strip out the impact of those subsidies... 28th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Second wave impacts to differ in Korea and Japan Both Korea and Japan are experiencing second waves, but a stronger shift in consumer behaviour in Korea means the outbreak there is likely to have a larger impact on growth. As such, we’ve revised... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Will the surge in the money supply boost inflation? The money supply has recently been growing at the fastest rate in at least two decades, boosted by government giveaways and generous lending to non-financial firms. However, the expansion in the... 18th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Implications of another state of emergency The second virus wave that is hitting Japan supports our view that Japan’s economy will contract more sharply this year than most anticipate. However, a renewed state of emergency would probably not... 3rd August 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will keep policy unchanged The Bank of Japan kept policy settings unchanged today as widely anticipated and we think it won’t announce major new measures over the coming months. 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update End of Abenomics in name only when PM steps down The chances of PM Abe serving a fourth term as LDP leader have fallen considerably in recent months. Instead, speculation has turned to whether Mr Abe will be able to hang on as Prime Minister for the... 1st July 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ unlikely to expand lending facilities any further The Bank of Japan today expanded its lending facilities further. The total amount of support for corporate funding is now equivalent to nearly 20% of the debt of non-financial firms and we don’t... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Robust corporate balance sheets to support recovery Caught out with high levels of debt during the 1991 asset price crash, many Japanese firms then accumulated significant rainy-day funds to shield themselves against a future crisis. That trend... 11th June 2020 · 3 mins read
