Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jan. 2021) Headline inflation recovered substantially in January due to the removal of the artificial drag from the Go To Travel campaign, and we think it will rebound further over the coming months. 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Jpn Trade (Jan. 2021) & Machinery Orders (Dec. 2020) While some of the rise in exports in January was likely due to the timing of the lunar new year, they should have continued to rise faster than imports across this quarter, with net trade likely to... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Preliminary) The strong rise in GDP in Q4 left output just 0.5% below pre-virus levels. And while most economists expect a renewed contraction this quarter due to the second state of emergency, we think that... 15th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Dec. 2020) The collapse in wage growth in December was entirely due to a fall in bonus payments. Wage growth will have bounced back in January and should soon turn positive as the labour market tightens and... 9th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Jan. 2021) The resilience of the Economy Watchers Survey in January suggests that the third wave is causing far less economic damage than the first did. That supports our non-consensus view that the economy will... 8th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market & Industrial Production (Dec. 2020) While industrial production and capital goods shipments fell in December, firms’ ultra-upbeat production forecasts for January support our view that GDP will rise this quarter. Meanwhile, the... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales (Dec. 2020) The small fall in retail sales in December suggests that consumer spending only weakened slightly before the declaration of a state of emergency. However, it’s still consistent with our view that... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jan. 2021) The small decline in January’s composite PMI is consistent with our view that the second state of emergency won’t throw the recovery off course. 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Dec. 2020) While headline inflation dropped to an 11-year low in November, that was due to weaker energy and fresh food inflation. We expect inflation to recover over the coming months. 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Dec. 2020) While export values failed to reach pre-virus levels again in December they should remain fairly strong at the start of the year, with net trade set to provide another boost to growth in Q1. 21st January 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Nov. 2020) The further rise in machinery orders in November followed a record monthly surge in October and suggests that business investment was rebounding strongly at the end of last year. We expect non... 14th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.) The sharp drop in the Economy Watchers Survey in December suggests that the third wave was weighing heavily on consumer sentiment even before the declaration of a state of emergency in Greater Tokyo... 12th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Nov. 2020) While wage growth weakened sharply in November it should recover strongly this year as overtime hours and bonuses recover and the labour market begins to tighten again. 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The recovery in consumer confidence flipped into reverse in December amid surging coronavirus infections. We think confidence will deteriorate further this year as tighter restrictions damage economic... 6th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Nov. 2020) While headline inflation fell sharply again in November due to weaker fresh food and energy inflation, we think it will recover early next year. 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Dec.) The rebound in the composite PMI in December is consistent with our view that the third virus wave will slow the recovery but won’t derail it. 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
