Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales (Mar. 2021) The further rise in retail sales in March suggests that consumer spending was relatively strong in between the third and fourth waves of coronavirus. The strength in goods consumption in February and... 28th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Mar. 2021) Inflation continued to rebound in March mainly due to a further pickup in energy inflation. We think headline inflation will rise further and break past the lofty heights of +1% y/y later in the year. 23rd April 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Mar. 2021) While export values rose in March, the rebound in exports slowed significantly across Q1 and external demand is unlikely to provide much of a tailwind to growth this year. 19th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Feb. 2021) The sharp fall in machinery orders in February poses downside risks to our view that business investment continued to rise last quarter. However, the recovery in private investment should still gather... 14th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Bank of Japan Tankan (Q1 2021) The further strong rebound in the Q1 Tankan supports our view that the economy’s recovery from the pandemic will gather pace again soon. And firms’ upbeat capital spending plans for the upcoming... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production (Feb. 2021) The fall in industrial production in February came off the back of a strong January and shouldn’t prevent manufacturing output rising across Q1. And firms’ production forecasts for April point to a... 31st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market & Retail Sales (Feb. 2021) The strong rise in retail sales in February to their highest level since September 2019 supports our view that the economy just about avoided a contraction in Q1. And while the unemployment rate was... 30th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Mar. 2021) The slight rise in the composite PMI in March was a little disappointing given that most state of emergency declarations had been lifted and suggests that the economy may not be entering Q2 with much... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Feb. 2021) Headline inflation recovered further in February due mainly to a pickup in energy inflation and should continue to rebound over the coming months as energy becomes a significant tailwind. 19th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Feb. 2021) While some of the weakness in exports last month was due to the later timing of the lunar new year, export growth may have been outpaced by import growth this quarter. That suggests that net trade may... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Jan. 2021) The fall in machinery orders in January is not particularly surprising given that they had surged significantly above pre-virus levels in December. We still expect business investment to have risen a... 15th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Wages, HH Spending (Jan.) & GDP (Rev. Q4 2020) While the downward revision to Q4 GDP and the sharp fall in “core” household spending in January suggest that the economy faired a little worse than initially reported over the winter, we continue to... 9th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Feb. 2021) The sharp rebound in the Economy Watchers Survey in February suggests economic activity is ending the quarter with some momentum. That supports our non-consensus view that the state of emergency won’t... 8th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Jan. 2021) & Capex (Q4 2020) The unemployment rate fell in January despite the state of emergency, and it should fall further over the course of this year as employment rebounds in line with the economic recovery. Meanwhile... 2nd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jan. 2021) The strong rise in industrial production and only tiny fall in retail sales in January suggest that the economy may not contract this quarter. And with the state of emergency set to end everywhere... 26th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Feb. 2021) The rebound in the composite PMI in February supports our view that the economy is coping with the second state of emergency better than most had anticipated. 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
