Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (May 2021) While the further acceleration in wage growth in May was again largely down to favourable base effects, we think wage growth will stay elevated as the labour market tightens and vaccines fuel a... 6th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Bank of Japan Tankan (Q2 2021) The further rebound in the Q2 Tankan supports our view that the economy’s disappointing start to the year won’t prevent vaccines driving a strong rebound in the second half of the year. And firms’... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production (May 2021) The plunge in industrial output in May probably reflects chip shortages, but firms’ production forecasts point to a marked rebound over the coming months. 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market & Retail Sales (May 2021) While the further rise in the unemployment rate last month suggests on-off restrictions are taking their toll on the labour market, employment should bounce back strongly soon. Meanwhile, consumer... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jun. 2021) Today’s flash PMIs suggest that the onus is on the services sector to drive the recovery over the coming months. The fall in the manufacturing PMI suggests that that sector won’t rebound much further... 23rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (May 2021) Headline inflation rose sharply in May due largely to a pickup in energy inflation. But while we expect headline inflation to rise further over the coming months, in contrast to many other large... 18th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Trade (May 2021) & Machinery Orders (Apr.) Despite the spectacular y/y growth rates in May, the rebound in exports is showing signs of slowing. Indeed, we doubt external demand will provide much of a tailwind to growth over the coming months... 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages (Apr.) & GDP (Revised Q1 2021) While the marked acceleration in wage growth in April was largely down to favourable base effects, we think wage growth will remain strong throughout this year as the labour market tightens and... 8th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Apr. 2021) The sharp fall in retail sales and weaker than expected rise in industrial production in April suggests the economy was subdued even before states of emergency were declared, supporting our view that... 31st May 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Apr. 2021) The unemployment rate spiked back up in April after a surprise sharp fall in March. However, we think the jobless rate will fall back to around 2.6% over the coming months as employment resumes its... 28th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (May) Today’s flash PMIs suggest that the manufacturing sector will continue to recover as supply shortages are starting to ease. However, the plunge in the services PMI suggests that overall economic... 21st May 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Apr. 2021) Inflation fell in April but that was almost entirely due to a plunge in mobile phone tariffs. Sifting through that distortion, headline inflation rose in April and will float higher over the coming... 21st May 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Trade (Apr. 2021) & Machinery Orders (Mar.) While export volumes edged higher in April, the rebound in exports is slowing and external demand is unlikely to provide much of a tailwind to growth over the coming months. Meanwhile, the muted rise... 20th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Preliminary) The economy contracted yet again during the second state of emergency. With the medical situation still worsening during the current third state of emergency and the vaccine rollout too slow, it will... 18th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Mar. 2021) Wage growth turned positive for the first time since the pandemic began in March and we think it will accelerate further next month due to favourable base effects. Further ahead wage growth should... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market & Industrial Production (Mar. 2021) The rebound in industrial production and the sharp drop in the unemployment rate in March are consistent with our view that the economy held up much better than most had anticipated during the second... 30th April 2021 · 3 mins read
