Industrial Metals Update Slower growth in China to drag on prices in 2022 While high power prices and low stocks will support prices in the near term, we think that prices will pull back in the second half of 2022 as Chinese economic activity slows further and supply... 13th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Drawdown in stocks to reverse in 2022 Exchange stocks of base metals have fallen this year, as supply was interrupted by power rationing in China as well as the ongoing effects of COVID-19. However, now that power restrictions have been... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore prices still set for a downturn We doubt that the recent jump in China’s iron ore imports is indicative of increasing demand. In fact, we expect demand for iron ore in China to cool as construction activity continues to slow and the... 9th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Rise in China commodity imports may be misleading The sharp rise in China’s commodity imports last month could be taken as a sign that underlying demand growth is undergoing a renewed acceleration. But given that this is just one month’s data, and... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Green transition to help charge cobalt prices Cobalt prices have soared in 2021 to almost double the 2020 average price of $31,726 per tonne. We expect the growth in EV production and issues around supply to continue to push prices higher in 2022... 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Omicron puts demand back in the spotlight We were already downbeat on the outlook for most commodity prices in 2022, not least because we thought that prices had lost touch with demand fundamentals. The risk of Omicron-related effects on... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper supply set for further improvements Copper prices have soared since mid-2020 as demand raced ahead of supply. However, a strong supply response is now underway which, in tandem with cooling copper demand, will weigh on prices into 2022. 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc supply shock as power prices rise The recent highs in the zinc price have been driven by fears around supply as sky-rocketing energy prices have undermined smelter profitability. We expect power prices to remain high in the coming... 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Pulling the plug; power rationing in China Power rationing in China has raised concerns about metal supply. But perhaps less obvious is that power rationing will also negatively affect demand if manufacturing activity is curtailed. On balance... 19th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s power shortage curbs metal supply & demand China’s manufacturing PMIs for September diverged, but both still point to subdued commodities demand. What’s more, the surveys were conducted before power shortages started to constrain activity... 30th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel market set to remain oversupplied We believe that current high nickel prices will prove short lived, and expect weaker economic growth in China and the tapering of US monetary policy support to depress demand for nickel and pull down... 28th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Evergrande collapse would put a ceiling on prices Although a messy collapse of Evergrande is a downside risk to our near-term price forecasts, it adds weight to our view that China’s construction sector is in structural decline. In turn, this... 23rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc set to lose its shine After climbing to multi-year highs in May, the zinc price has stayed strong, with much less volatility than its counterparts. However, we feel weaker economic growth in China and US tapering of... 6th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China aluminium output: how worried should we be? Aluminium prices have recently been boosted by a series of supply outages in China. But unlike Chinese steel production, where declines have been driven largely by government policy which looks here... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Tide is turning against steel production in China The government in China has stepped up measures to tackle pollution and excess capacity in the domestic steel sector over the past few months. This adds weight to our view that steel production, and... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Cooling Chinese growth to weigh on metal prices China’s latest activity data are further evidence of a slowdown in its economy. This aligns with our view that industrial metals demand will soften in the year ahead, putting downward pressure on... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
