Commodities Update The World in 2023: The outlook for commodity prices We think most commodity prices will ease back in early 2023, at the height of the global recession and monetary tightening in many major economies. That said, we expect a relatively shallow recession... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodities demand under growing pressure The latest manufacturing PMI data from China strengthens our view that China’s industrial metals demand growth slowed in November and will probably weaken further in December. 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Metals Demand Monitor (Sep.) Metals demand growth improved markedly in the third quarter, but demand is unlikely to hold up as global economic activity deteriorates further. 24th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Industrial metals to come under further pressure Industrial metal prices are starting to come under pressure again, after rallying by 10% in the first two weeks of November. We think that weak global demand will drag prices lower over the next few... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc supply concerns to come to the fore before long The global recession will drag on zinc consumption even further in the coming months, probably leading to renewed price declines. But, towards the end of 2023, supply concerns should push the price... 11th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Higher oil imports not a sign of strong China demand China’s latest trade figures point to weak commodity demand both domestically and globally. Given that we don’t expect the slowdown in global economic growth to trough until early next year, we think... 7th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Aluminium price to edge higher despite recession As the global economy tips into recession, aluminium demand growth will remain weak next year. However, we think supply growth will be even softer, pushing stocks lower and the price higher. 20th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to soft commodity demand Industrial metals prices rose following the release of the latest survey data on China’s manufacturing sector. But the average of the headline PMIs continued to decline, as did the average of the... 30th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The boost from China reopening is now behind us China’s PMIs fell in July, weighed down by soft export orders. However, we think that China’s economy troughed in H1 2022, and that a modest pick-up in H2 should give some support to commodities... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update What to make of the price slump As metals prices soared early in the year, we cautioned that they would end the year lower owing to soft demand growth. Prices have since plunged. Now, we think they may have a little further to fall... 15th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Rebound in China’s PMIs likely to be a one-off We think that the recovery in China’s PMIs in June was driven by the lifting of virus-related restrictions rather than an improvement in underlying economic conditions. Accordingly, we think that... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The Codelco strike threat, Chile and the copper price A threatened strike at Chile’s copper giant, Codelco, could knock as much as 0.3%-pts off quarterly GDP growth for every week that workers are on strike and worsen the country’s balance of payments... 21st June 2022 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese refined output will only plug some of the gap Robust Chinese refined metal output, alongside subdued domestic demand, has combined with constrained refined output elsewhere to provide greater export opportunities for China. But there are limits... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Weaker demand to drag on EU steel prices Softer demand for steel in Europe has dragged prices lower recently, despite production in the region being constrained by high production costs. We expect prices to fall a little further to €900 per... 9th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China’s steel price to fall, despite reduced output We expect China’s steel output to fall a little this year in line with government objectives. But we think that subdued demand, notably from the steel-intensive construction sector, will lead to lower... 27th May 2022 · 3 mins read
