Industrial Metals Update US steel prices should pick up Having fallen sharply since late-2014, we expect US steel prices to stabilise and pick up over the course of this year owing to resilient domestic demand. That said, our forecast also assumes that the... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks only tell half the story Stock movements and prices should have an inverse relationship, but this has not beenthe case for many of the base metals over the last month. There are, of course, otherdrivers of the price... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Can the rally in lead prices be sustained? The boost to lead prices from the recent squeeze on stock availability may prove temporary. That said, it has exposed the underlying tightness in the market which should be a key factor supporting... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc to continue to outperform Even with cautious demand estimates, the deficit in the zinc market will deepen this year. As such, we expect zinc prices to rise and to outperform many of the other metals. 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Possible flaws in the ‘‘iron ore plan’’ The ongoing surge in iron ore supply had been expected, but perhaps what has taken markets by surprise is the increasing likelihood that demand could falter, even at these low prices. We think prices... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lead demand to pick up this year A strong outlook for the global auto market, given loose credit conditions, low oil prices and rising incomes in developing countries, should boost lead demand this year. With low stocks and only... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Western investors turning positive on copper Investor sentiment towards copper has been negative since late 2014. While some of copper’s recent price resilience probably has to do with short-covering, there are tentative signs that sentiment is... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Copper stocks rise again Factors unrelated to physical demand continue to drive stock movements. However, a lull in activity around Chinese new year was also an issue in February. We expect the rise in copper stocks to be... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Little to support US steel prices, for now US steel prices have plummeted since late 2014 but perhaps what is more surprising is the fact that they had not fallen earlier. Market conditions suggest prices will continue to struggle this year... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Tin prices to rise even without an Indonesian export ban After recording a small surplus in 2014, we expect the tin market to plunge back into deficit this year and prices to rise. As such, any attempt by Indonesia’s producers to curb exports may be... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Bauxite shortfall to support alumina prices Lower bauxite availability, owing to the Indonesian export ban, and dwindling Chinese stocks will impede alumina production this year, leading to higher prices. 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Surely aluminium premiums have to fall soon? Aluminium price premiums should fall in 2015 based on supply and demand fundamentals. Admittedly, they have not been easy to justify on these grounds for some time. But we think changing dynamics in... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Dwindling surpluses to boost nickel prices Falling ore stocks at China’s ports and lower ore exports from the Philippines are likely to curb Chinese refined nickel output this year. Given steady demand growth, prices should rebound. 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices to remain in the doldrums Lower input costs, weakening demand and overproduction led to sharp falls in Chinese steel prices over the last year. In our view, these factors will continue to weigh on the Chinese steel market in... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks failing to signal demand trends Stock movements, in general, continue to tell us more about the attractiveness of holding commodity assets off-market rather than anything about underlying physical demand. However, low official... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Shifting dynamics in the tin trade Indonesia’s efforts to dictate the tin market look increasingly futile as China finds a new source of tin ore and lifts domestic refined production. However, despite the changing dynamics, the bigger... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read