Commodities Update Commodity prices to struggle in the next few months The key message from the latest China PMIs is that whilst China’s economy is likely to grow strongly this quarter, momentum is fading. This will be one factor weighing on commodity prices in the near... 4th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Metals Demand Monitor Metals Demand Monitor (Jan.) Our in-house demand proxies for industrial metals picked up at the start of 2023, which is consistent with China re-opening and resilient macroeconomic data in most advanced economies. What’s more, we... 19th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices on a tear, but not for long The ongoing rally in the US steel price appears supply-driven and will, most likely, be short-lived. We expect the rally to fizzle out and go into reverse as the US economy slides into recession. 30th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Commodities and the spillovers from financial markets While commodity prices have also been caught up in the chaos stemming from the banking sector turmoil, so far the impact hasn’t been too alarming as price falls for most commodities haven’t been... 17th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update First thoughts on banking stress and commodity prices Commodity prices have tumbled as concern about a banking crisis has grown. The downside risks to our forecasts, which we recently attributed to higher interest rates, now include banking sector stress... 16th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Metals Demand Monitor Metals Demand Monitor (Dec.) Demand growth for industrial metals slowed to a halt at the end of last year. Even with some more recent improvements in advanced economy activity growth, metals demand probably kicked off the year on... 9th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Unpacking China’s NPC for commodities The National People’s Congress reports struck a cautious note on the outlook for economic activity in China this year. Fiscal stimulus will be limited and efforts to prevent “disorderly” expansion in... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Europe metals supply battered, but not entirely broken The sharp fall in European electricity prices sets the stage for a recovery in metals output across the region. As power prices are still historically high and unlikely to fall that much further... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Upward pressure on renewables costs to be transitory A combination of higher interest rates and rising raw material prices have interrupted the long-term declines in the costs of renewables and battery power, and could push costs up further in the near... 16th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The impact of civil unrest in Peru on copper Anecdotal reports and high frequency data suggest that ongoing civil unrest in Peru is beginning to choke off activity at key copper mines. But, if recent history is anything to go by, output can... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Metals Demand Monitor (Nov.) Demand growth for industrial metals slowed sharply late last year. But attention is now geared towards the rebound in China’s metal demand. We think there is a good chance that the rebound disappoints... 27th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Surge in copper prices on shaky footing While China’s reopening has improved the prospects for copper demand, the price has, in our view, surged by more than can be justified by developments there alone. We expect the copper price to drop... 24th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The fallout from protests in Peru Widespread unrest across several regions in Peru could make the central bank’s job of reducing above-target inflation even more difficult while also threating to hamper activity in some of the country... 16th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Higher price forecasts due to China reopening China’s rapid reopening and the likelihood of policy stimulus there has improved the macro-economic backdrop for commodities in 2023. But with developed economies in recession, and a somewhat stronger... 16th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Metals Demand Monitor (Oct.) Demand growth for industrial metals slowed in October and almost certainly weakened further last month. We expect demand growth to remain sluggish, or even contract, in the first half of 2023 as the... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Rise in risk appetite for industrial metals is premature Unusually, investors have been reducing their net-long position in the oil futures market, but increasing their position in industrial metals. We suspect this reflects optimism about China reopening... 22nd December 2022 · 2 mins read
