Industrial Metals Update What, if anything, can copper price arbitrage activity tell us? The recent strength in China’s copper imports has been dismissed by many commentators as a response to an import arbitrage opportunity, rather than as a sign of a pick-up in demand. While the... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Low stocks are offering some support to prices Exchange stocks of lead and tin are now at very low levels and total stocks of most metals have fallen since the start of the year. Of course, there may well be unreported stocks but, at face value... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s steel slowdown to keep iron ore prices under pressure Iron ore prices have now recovered from December’s lows, close to our end-year forecast. We expect demand from China’s steel sector to disappoint this year, so wouldn’t be surprised to see prices dip... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Tin to outperform other base metals this year Tin usage should pick up in 2016, led by a recovery in the global electronics sector. Given constrained supply, the price of tin could rally strongly. 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Another bumper month (and year) for China’s REE exports In December, China’s rare earth (REE) exports were up by nearly 50% m/m – much higher than the 10% m/m average growth seen since the start of 2012. We believe the sharp increase was partly seasonal... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Solid Chinese metals imports defy negative sentiment December was the fourth consecutive month of strong Chinese metals imports. Although low prices have probably played a role, we think that robust consumption, driven by increased infrastructure... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc prices to benefit from resilient demand In recent weeks, the focus of has been on the supply of metals and whether producers will cut to rebalance the markets. But in the case of zinc, lower supply almost seems inevitable. As such, it will... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Safe-haven demand drives gold price higher The turmoil in global equity markets has weighed on the prices of the more industrial precious metals (PM) over the past month, with platinum and palladium recording the worst losses. In contrast... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s aluminium stockpiling scheme just a short-term fix We don’t expect China’s recently-announced aluminium stockpiling scheme to provide prices with anything more than a temporary boost. Indeed, depending on how the scheme is implemented, it could... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel’s travails are not over yet Although we are broadly positive on the outlook for industrial metals prices in 2016, it is hard to find the upbeat narrative for nickel. Demand is weak and stocks are high. That said , we do expect... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks will not provide much of a cushion in 2016 There were few significant increases in stocks last year, despite reports of oversupply in most metals markets. Indeed, stocks of many metals could be drawn down swiftly if, as we expect, supply falls... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Price of cerium to recover, but won’t be a showstopper Cerium is the most abundant rare earth element (REE) and one of the most widely used. We expect the rise in cerium demand to outweigh increases in supply this year and next, putting some upward... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore prices to stabilise in 2016 After falling below US$40 per tonne late last year, iron ore prices have edged higher more recently. Although we expect global demand to grow only moderately this year, we forecast that prices will be... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update How will oil price developments affect copper? The recent slide in the oil price is weighing on the price of copper, in part because it is a reflection of negative investor sentiment towards commodities in general and China’s economy in particular... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Constrained supply may not be a panacea for alumina prices Malaysia has imposed a 3-month ban on bauxite mining and with further measures likely to follow, alumina supply could struggle in 2016. That said, demand will also be constrained by slower growth in... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Steel prices to recover slowly in 2016 After falling sharply in 2015, we expect US steel prices to recover slowly next year as a result of greater trade protectionism, further global capacity closures and improved demand. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
