Industrial Metals Update US-China trade war prompts cuts to our forecasts We have now factored into our forecasts a ratcheting-up of trade tensions between the US and China over the next year. Given this, we have shaved our projections for the prices of some metals. However... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The US steel price bloodbath is not over yet US steel prices have tumbled by more than a third over the past year and we think that a weaker US economy, combined with rising imports, means prices should fall by a further 15% over the next year. 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Rare earths prices could get a shot in the arm China’s threat to restrict rare earth exports to the US has awoken the prices of rare earth elements (REE) from their slumber. While restrictions on Chinese exports to the US are unlikely to occur... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Weak demand to weigh on steel prices The recent strength in global steel production is unlikely to continue as we expect growth in global steel demand to soften and prices to fall in the months ahead. 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor Our in-house proxies of growth in China’s demand for industrial metals have generally risen in the first third of 2019, fuelled by a surge in construction. Despite government stimulus this year, we... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investor gloom set to deepen Industrial metals prices have slid in recent weeks and despite investor positions approaching a three-year trough, we think that further investor selling will contribute to even lower metals prices... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Higher tariffs do not change our already bearish view A total breakdown in US-China trade talks would undoubtedly be a further negative for the prices of most industrial metals. However, regardless of the latest tariff increase, we had already expected a... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update LME lead prices to fall, but still outperform The price of lead has been lower on the LME than on the Shanghai exchange for more than a year now and it has fallen this year while the prices of other metals, most notably its sister metal zinc... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Copper rally: too far, too soon Copper prices have approached 10-month highs recently on supply woes and optimism that growth in China will rebound, but we think that this rally will reverse as China’s recovery falls short of... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices could drop sharply We expect the Chinese price of steel rebar to drop by more than a fifth this year as a cooling property sector dents demand. 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Production woes delay iron ore price drop A tropical cyclone and a burst dam will mean lower iron ore output from the three largest producers this year, which we believe will swing the market into a deficit. In our view, this deficit will... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc prices to be blown off course While dwindling exchange stocks have helped to boost the price of zinc in recent months, we think that prices are set to drop appreciably later this year as increased mine output finally starts to... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel set to lose its star performer tag Nickel prices have surged since the start of this year, but we think that this leaves the metal particularly vulnerable to the global economic slowdown and higher output. 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Trade deal will not prevent prices falling Industrial metals prices have risen robustly this year, but we think that the rally is running out of steam. Even if a US - China trade agreement is reached, a slowdown in global growth and an... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iron ore price to tumble, but not yet We have revised up our iron ore price forecast following the disaster at the Córrego do Feijão iron ore mine and its aftermath, given the negative implications for supply. However, with demand set to... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor China’s industrial activity data suggest that metals demand held up well in the last quarter of 2018, but we don’t expect this to last in 2019 as a downturn in economic activity will weigh on demand. 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
