Industrial Metals Update Focus to continue to shift away from US-China trade The muted market reaction to news of a provisional trade deal between the US and China lends weight to our view that the trade war’s grip on metals markets will ease over the coming year. While we are... 17th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The best days are behind iron ore After scaling a multi-year high in 2019, we forecast that iron ore prices will fall back over the coming years. This is premised on the continued return of supply from Brazil and Australia following... 13th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The case for copper In our view, the outlook for copper prices over the next twelve months is positive. Supply is unlikely to recover nearly as quickly as many assume following major disruptions this year, and demand... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Latest Trump tariffs pose little downside risk to prices President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium from Brazil and Argentina is likely to have little impact on prices. And while this could be interpreted as a sign that... 4th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel’s slump gives scope for upside in 2020 Following the recent correction in the nickel price, we now think there is room for it to rise next year. We expect a large loss of supply and a recovery in demand to yield a deeper market deficit... 28th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Lead supply shortfall in 2020 looks increasingly likely In our view, market participants have recently become too downbeat on the prospects for lead. In fact, we think there are several reasons to expect the price of lead to rebound in the year ahead. 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Burgeoning supply to take the shine off zinc The price of zinc has risen a little since its recent low in September on the back of unanticipated disruptions to supply. But we expect it to fall back again next year, premised on a rebound in... 19th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Consumption data are overstating aluminium demand We think that aluminium consumption figures are being flattered by a resurgence in off-exchange stockpiling. As such, and contrary to consensus expectations of a market deficit in 2019, we think that... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The only way is down for Chinese steel Our forecast of a downturn in China’s property sector bodes ill for the price of Chinese steel. Moreover, falling iron ore prices and a bleak outlook for China’s steel exports will add to the downward... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update More of the same for tin in 2020 Output cuts by Chinese smelters mean that the price of tin is unlikely to fall further in the coming quarters. But with growth in major consumers set to slow and tin particularly exposed to “List 4”... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Trade war’s grip on metals to ease Despite the latest “mini-deal”, we think it is only a matter of time before trade tensions between the US and China escalate again. Either way, we think that the recovery in global economic growth... 15th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Low stocks sowing the seeds for price rebound On the whole, dwindling exchange stocks have had a muted impact on prices this year as global growth has slowed. But as inventories creep towards critical lows, this sets the scene for a sustained... 11th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update More to dwindling aluminium output than low prices At first glance, weak global aluminium output so far this year can be chalked up to the slump in prices. However, lower Chinese production growth has more to do with government-led crackdowns on... 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Just how much nickel is sitting off-exchange? We estimate that 190,000 tonnes of refined nickel have flowed into unreported stocks since 2017. In other words, nickel stocks are much higher than official numbers indicate. This supports our view... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese outages won’t boost LME aluminium price Smelter outages in China have led to a surge in the ShFE price of aluminium, and there is mounting speculation that the LME price will soon follow suit. We disagree. In contrast, our in-house model... 18th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc prices have further to fall Surging Chinese smelter output and faltering demand mean we think that zinc prices are set to drop by more than 15% by the end of this year and are unlikely to start recovering until the second half... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
