Industrial Metals Update China infrastructure splurge to prop up iron ore price The fiscal stimulus announced today at the National People’s Congress in China failed to make much of a splash in metals markets. Nevertheless, we think it will underpin stronger iron ore demand this... 22nd May 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China stockpiling is not a long-term solution The incentives offered by China’s provincial governments will artificially boost demand for base metals, especially lead and zinc. As a result, smelters who may have cut supply or shut altogether may... 29th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Vale cuts won’t prevent iron ore surplus Vale, the world’s second largest iron ore producer, has cut its iron ore output guidance for 2020 by nearly 30m tonnes. Although significant, we don’t think it will be enough to push the market into a... 20th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Lower steel production to drag on iron ore prices Iron ore prices have been supported so far this year by China’s steel mills, which have continued to churn out metal. But with demand in China still subdued, and the virus-related disruption yet to... 8th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Why supply cuts don’t matter (yet) Several producers outside China have reduced operations in the past week, most notably in Latin America. But much like policy support, lower supply will do little to boost prices so long as measures... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Even after this week’s sell-off, the worst is yet to pass Over the last month, industrial metals prices had been holding up on hopes that China’s economy was edging closer to a post-virus recovery. But that all changed this week. With what were once downside... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update When will commodities find their feet? As commodity prices continue to flash red, this Update summarises how we think things will play out from here. In the near term, we suspect that further price falls are in store, regardless of policy... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Stock hangover to dampen any recovery in prices Downward revisions to our demand forecasts mean that we now expect all base metal markets to be oversupplied in H1 2020. Lower output should, at best, prevent these surpluses from growing too large... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China stimulus to push iron ore and steel higher The prospect of stronger demand stemming from stimulus in China, alongside recent supply disruptions, means that we now expect the deficit in the iron ore market to deepen this year, rather than... 4th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Revising our forecasts as COVID-19 effects linger We had previously assumed that any coronavirus-related hit to metals demand in Q1 would be made up in subsequent quarters. But that now seems unlikely. As a result, we are lowering our year-end price... 27th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Perception the key to cobalt’s future There is potential for cobalt’s end-use in electric vehicle batteries to grow rapidly. However, concerns over the concentration of cobalt supply in the DRC have held back demand so far. Several auto... 18th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Supply cutbacks in China look increasingly likely Measures to contain the spread of coronavirus in China have already dealt a heavy blow to metals demand. But the longer China’s economy remains part-suspended, the greater the chance that supply is... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Coronavirus could push copper market into surplus The outbreak of coronavirus in China threatens to derail the recovery we were expecting in the price of copper this year. In fact, when our estimate for the potential loss of copper demand is plugged... 31st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Base metals to dethrone precious this year We forecast that the prices of base metals will fare better than precious metals in 2020. This view hinges on a modest recovery in the global economy, which should give a lift to metals demand at a... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Aluminium price to rise in 2020 despite surplus We forecast that the price of aluminium will rise this year even if, as we expect, the market flips from a deficit to a surplus. This is due to our expectation that investors will focus on a more... 3rd January 2020 · 4 mins read
