Commodities Weekly Peak oil debate slightly misses the point The focus in oil markets this week was on the long term with the IEA predicting that oil demand will peak in 2029 while OPEC argued there is no peak in sight. In any case, when the peak occurs is only... 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Reading the OPEC+ tea leaves: rollover is on the cards The decision by OPEC+ to move its crunch meeting from in-person on Saturday in Vienna to online on Sunday, historically a sign of an uneventful meeting, suggests that members will rollover production... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper price upsurge will not be sustained The surge in copper prices today, to a record high of over $5/lb in trading on the New York commodities exchange (COMEX), is the latest twist in the eye-popping market rally and leaves prices looking... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update Battery imports to bear the brunt of new US tariffs The impact of the US tariffs announced today will barely register on the paltry flows of solar panels and electric vehicles that China directly exports to the US. However, the new tariffs could have a... 14th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc on the brink of a price fall The surplus in the zinc market will shrink a little this year, as recovering raw material supply and a pick-up in refined output is offset by a boost to demand from a cyclical recovery in China. That... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to solid but unremarkable demand China’s PMI surveys for April suggest the economy continues to grow at a faster pace than a few months ago which is providing support for commodity demand. Today’s Politburo statement signalled that... 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Metals prices: a genuine breakout or overoptimism? In a mixed week for commodity prices, copper topped $10,000 per tonne for the first time since April 2022. This is the latest in what has been a rip-roaring start to the year for non-ferrous... 26th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Further falls in store for iron ore amid falling demand This year’s falls in iron ore prices are likely to have been a dress rehearsal for what's ahead. Our China team’s forecast for the property sector to halve by the end of the decade does not bode well... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Russian metal ban won’t rock the boat We think that any impact from the suspension of trading of Russian metal on the LME and CME is likely to be muted, given that trade flows have already shifted markedly and it is unlikely to impact... 15th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China property contraction to hit metals prices hard In light of our China team’s new non-consensus view that an aggressive slowdown in property sector construction seems almost inevitable in the years ahead, we have revised our price forecasts. We now... 10th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices on shaky foundations US steelmakers are preparing for robust growth in steel demand over the next few years, however we think those expectations will fall flat. Steel demand from property construction is likely to fall... 5th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Global Steel Production (Feb. 2024) The robust increase in global steel production since the beginning of the year probably has a bit further to run since there are few signs that the two largest producers – China and India – will slow... 22nd March 2024 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Global Aluminium Production (Feb.) The drop in global aluminium production in February should be a blip now that output curbs in China’s Yunnan province due to power constraints have been lifted. 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China NPC is pro-growth, but not enough to lift prices China’s government is planning further fiscal loosening and hinting at rate cuts this year, with the aim of boosting economic activity. We think the policy backdrop is sufficient to support... 6th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Tin up; we expect prices to rise Given the signs that cyclical and structural forces will raise tin demand this year, set against a backdrop of tightening supply due to the mining ban in Myanmar, we forecast the tin price to rise in... 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
