India Economics Weekly G-SAP redux? The recent jump in bond yields is reportedly causing consternation among policymakers. The big worry is the impact that higher bond yields would have on the trajectory of India’s public debt. This... 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Power shortages, new repo rate forecasts The ongoing heatwave and related power shortages in India pose a downside risk to growth, but we think the biggest risk is the upside one to inflation. Indeed, rising price pressures prompted the RBI... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Consensus may still be playing catch up Comments this week from MPC members strengthen our view that the repo rate will be hiked by 25bp (to 4.25%) in the next policy meeting in June. That view is now also shared by the consensus, which has... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly PM Johnson trip, NBFC clean up, WPI surges Underpinning UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s visit to India are talks toward a free-trade agreement, which both countries are aiming to have in place before the end of the year. But the early... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation surge sets stage for June rate hike We’ve been arguing for several months that both the consensus and the RBI have been underestimating the upside threats to inflation. Consumer price data for March released this week have reinforced... 14th April 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russia relations, LIC IPO, RBI policy stance Relations between India and Russia came under fresh scrutiny this week. But tentative signs that India is beginning to tread more carefully suggest that discounted Russian commodities are now even... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Price pressures are building The main focus next week will be the RBI’s policy announcement on Friday. We think the MPC will leave its policy settings unchanged, but we still expect the committee to ditch its dovish tone later... 1st April 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee-ruble exchange, virus restrictions lifted Indian authorities are in advanced discussions with their Russian counterparts over a rupee-ruble exchange system that would enable the two countries to continue trading even as Russia gets blocked... 25th March 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Wheat exports, inflation jump, loan moratorium expiry India's wheat exports have soared recently and stand to benefit further from the shock to global supply caused by the war in Ukraine. But the consequences for India's external position will be small... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil price surge to dent but not derail recovery We are reducing our GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 0.8%-pts on account of the surge in oil prices and the resulting hit to investment in particular. We now think the economy will grow by 9.2% this... 11th March 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Supply worries, new inflation forecasts, LIC IPO delay? India's direct economic links with Russia and Ukraine are small but there are unintended consequences from the war. Supply shortages may intensify. Meanwhile, we’ve revised upwards our inflation... 4th March 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Ukraine crisis generates inflation and external risks The key channel through which the crisis in Ukraine will impact India's economy is higher oil prices. If sustained, higher prices would harm real incomes and dampen the economic recovery, which the... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly LIC IPO unlikely to ignite privatisation drive Local media has been awash with commentary about the initial public offering (IPO) of Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) after the state-owned behemoth this week submitted its draft prospectus. From a... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation already closing in on RBI’s ceiling A key takeaway from the RBI’s policy meeting this week was that the Bank remains relaxed about the inflation outlook, expecting the headline CPI rate to peak within the tolerance band (2-6%) this... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly E-rupee will have to battle consumer indifference One of the more eye-catching elements of the Union Budget was the pledge that the RBI would introduce a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in the upcoming fiscal year. That would make the Reserve... 4th February 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to expect from the Union Budget For watchers of India’s economy, next week is one of the most significant of the year as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman delivers the Union Budget for FY22/23 on Tuesday. Unusually, the fiscal... 28th January 2022 · 5 mins read
