India Economics Weekly A pivotal (and positive) week The net result of an extraordinary week encompassing the FY26/27 Union Budget, an RBI meeting and an announcement of a trade deal with the US is that both near-term and long-term economic prospects... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Budget, RBI take centre stage after historic EU trade deal After the announcement this week of the long-awaited India-EU trade deal, attention will quickly shift back to domestic policy. The Union Budget on Sunday will reveal how the Finance Ministry will... 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Capital outflows, India-EU trade deal, Budget preview Foreign investors have remained net sellers of Indian equities in the early stages of 2026 and it's likely that outflows persist for a while yet. That is unlikely to cause external strains but it will... 23rd January 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Exports to US (and imports from Russia) holding up The December goods trade data released this week continue to show resilience in exports to the US at the headline level. But that probably reflects strength in tariff-exempt sectors such as... 16th January 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Household debt, geopolitical alignment, CPI data The further rise in household debt in India last year should not be a major concern for now given the backdrop of falling interest rates. But it is a risk that will require close monitoring once the... 9th January 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Three things to watch in 2026 Our India Economic Outlook for Q1 2026 and accompanying dashboard contain all of our latest analysis and forecasts for India’s economy and financial markets. In our final Weekly of 2025, we highlight... 19th December 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Limited macro impact from further rupee weakness The Indian rupee continues to hit fresh lows against the US dollar and we think it will weaken to 93/$ by the end of next year. This presents limited macro risk: inflation and FX debts are very low... 12th December 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee at 90/$; what next? The Indian rupee breached 90/$ for the first time ever this week and we think further, albeit gradual, depreciation lies in store over the coming quarters. We now expect the rupee to end next year at... 5th December 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Blockbuster Q3 GDP, labour market overhaul, RBI preview The further acceleration in GDP growth in Q3 leaves India's economy on course to expand by an impressive 7.5% this year. But with inflation at a generational low, that won't prevent the RBI from... 28th November 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly October’s record trade deficit not a sign of things to come India’s trade deficit widened to its largest on record in October, fuelling fresh concerns about the rupee which is hovering near all-time lows against the US dollar. But the surge in gold imports is... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly New inflation forecasts, Bihar election implications Headline inflation in India fell to a near 26-year low in October. Although this probably marks the bottom, we now think it will average just 3.0% in 2026, from 3.4% previously. That will allow the... 14th November 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Equity market underperformance has further to run Foreign investors returned as net buyers of Indian equities over the past month. But we doubt this marks the start of a sustained or broad-based recovery in confidence toward India’s equity market... 7th November 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bihar election looms large over India-US trade talks The Bihar state election will be closely watched for its implications for reforms and as a potential referendum on India’s stance in trade talks with the US. Bihar is one of India’s most agrarian... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russian oil import conundrum, RBI squeezes short-sellers President Trump's comments this week that Prime Minister Modi has pledged to stop buying oil from Russia have been denied by India's Ministry Of External Affairs. The latest data show that Russia's... 17th October 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Trade deals back in focus The flurry of activity around bilateral trade deals this week highlights the shift to a more liberal approach among Indian policymakers. Politically-sensitive sectors such as agriculture will probably... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banking sector cheers RBI reforms The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.50% this week but struck a fairly dovish tone, suggesting that further interest rate cuts are still likely in the coming months. The... 3rd October 2025 · 3 mins read
