India Economics Weekly Tight-lipped MPC won’t need to resume rate hikes The minutes of the MPC's April meeting - in which the repo rate was kept on hold at 6.50% - show that the majority of the panel is willing to resume policy tightening should the data warrant it. But... 21st April 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly 1,425,775,850 and counting According to UN projections, India will today replace China as home to the world’s largest population. The key to unlocking this immense demographic potential is to develop the manufacturing sector... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly New FTP will fall short of lofty ambitions The government's new Foreign Trade Policy is underpinned by ambitions to boost exports to US$2trn by FY29/30 and increase the use of the rupee settlement mechanism, both of which are tough tasks... 6th April 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russian oil flows, remittances boost, RBI preview The announcement from Russian oil giant Rosneft that it will ramp up oil imports to India, and the US court ruling enabling partners of H-1B visa holders to work in the country, should both serve to... 31st March 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Long-term manufacturing hopes brewing The overarching message from our latest India Economic Outlook published this week is that while prospects for the economy look a little uninspiring over the near term, there are reasons to be... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly SVB and Credit Suisse fallout, April rate hike For India, the fallout from the SVB collapse and Credit Suisse crisis has been limited. The big unknown is whether banking sector problems will flare up elsewhere. At the aggregate level, the Indian... 17th March 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Coal shortages remain a key downside risk Efforts to improve the stability of coal supply have had some success over the past 18 months but shortages remain a key downside risk to the economic outlook. The upcoming summer months could be a... 10th March 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Making sense of the activity data The economy appears to have held up a touch better than we had anticipated at the start of this year, mirroring the trend in several other major economies. Q4 is likely to have marked the trough for q... 3rd March 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly MPC fault lines, shifting consensus, GDP data With the MPC minutes from this month's RBI meeting underlining that the hawks remain in the ascendancy, the temptation is to forecast further monetary tightening. Indeed, the consensus has shifted... 24th February 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation jump may be less worrying than it seems The January CPI data released this week made for uncomfortable reading, but may be less worrying than they first appear. A bottom-up look at the components of the food basket suggest that the rate of... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Adani spill-over risks, RBI cautious on inflation Contagion risks from the Adani saga look contained for now; foreign equity outflows have been small and there has been no widening in corporate bond spreads. However, we don't share the RBI's optimism... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Is the Adani crisis a macro concern? The short-seller attack on the Adani Group has continued to dominate the headlines this week. From the macro perspective there are few signs of contagion, with equities up slightly on the week in... 3rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to expect from the Union Budget For watchers of India’s economy, next week is one of the most significant of the year as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman delivers the Union Budget for FY23/24 on Wednesday. This is the last full... 27th January 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Electronics optimism, fracturing, vehicle sales drop There are more signs of a growing electronics ecosystem in India. This week, around a dozen suppliers to Apple’s international operations received clearance to expand into the country. And comments... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee policies: solutions in need of problems Policymakers in India have been talking up prospects for the rupee settlement mechanism as well as the recently-piloted central bank digital currency, the so-called "e-rupee". But while there are... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Another look at the PMI conundrum The PMI surveys for December released this week suggest that India’s economy was firing on all cylinders at the end of 2022. But they are at odds with several other indicators that point to a slowdown... 6th January 2023 · 6 mins read
