India Economics Weekly MPC fault lines, shifting consensus, GDP data With the MPC minutes from this month's RBI meeting underlining that the hawks remain in the ascendancy, the temptation is to forecast further monetary tightening. Indeed, the consensus has shifted... 24th February 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation jump may be less worrying than it seems The January CPI data released this week made for uncomfortable reading, but may be less worrying than they first appear. A bottom-up look at the components of the food basket suggest that the rate of... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Adani spill-over risks, RBI cautious on inflation Contagion risks from the Adani saga look contained for now; foreign equity outflows have been small and there has been no widening in corporate bond spreads. However, we don't share the RBI's optimism... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Is the Adani crisis a macro concern? The short-seller attack on the Adani Group has continued to dominate the headlines this week. From the macro perspective there are few signs of contagion, with equities up slightly on the week in... 3rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to expect from the Union Budget For watchers of India’s economy, next week is one of the most significant of the year as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman delivers the Union Budget for FY23/24 on Wednesday. This is the last full... 27th January 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Electronics optimism, fracturing, vehicle sales drop There are more signs of a growing electronics ecosystem in India. This week, around a dozen suppliers to Apple’s international operations received clearance to expand into the country. And comments... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee policies: solutions in need of problems Policymakers in India have been talking up prospects for the rupee settlement mechanism as well as the recently-piloted central bank digital currency, the so-called "e-rupee". But while there are... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Another look at the PMI conundrum The PMI surveys for December released this week suggest that India’s economy was firing on all cylinders at the end of 2022. But they are at odds with several other indicators that point to a slowdown... 6th January 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Three key questions for 2023 In our final Weekly of 2022 we explore three key themes for the coming year – when policy loosening will come onto the agenda, whether there are further signs of a growing electronics ecosystem, and... 23rd December 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Lending rates playing catch up Data released this week reinforce our view that domestic demand is softening in response to higher interest rates. And with the rise in lending rates still having further to run to fully reflect the... 16th December 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Gujarat election, semiconductors, Q1 Outlook The BJP’s huge win in the Gujarat state election could convince the ruling national party that it currently has enough electoral clout to push ahead with difficult structural reforms. Meanwhile... 9th December 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Sensex outperformance, activity data, RBI meeting India’s Sensex hit a fresh record high this week, continuing its remarkable performance over the past few months. However, high valuations may limit its outperformance over the coming years. Next week... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Why the Gujarat election matters for investors State elections in India matter for economic policy but next week’s vote in Gujarat arguably holds more significance than most others. It is the manufacturing powerhouse of the country and, linked to... 25th November 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Signs of domestic demand softening There are signs in the latest data that domestic demand is softening, though not to the extent that it should raise alarm at the central bank. This reinforces our view that the tightening cycle still... 18th November 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Coal giving ground slowly to renewables India’s dependence on coal and its plans to increase coal-powered generating capacity have been talking points at COP27. In the recent past, this dependence has been an economic vulnerability as... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Electronics exports are booming India’s exports of electronics remain small, but they have doubled in value over the past couple of years. This is further evidence of a shift into areas of manufacturing that have the potential to... 4th November 2022 · 5 mins read