India Economics Weekly Rupee weakness not a major macro concern The rupee has been hovering close to record lows this week amid the sell-off in global bond markets. But the good news is that the macroeconomic impact of a weakening rupee is limited. Meanwhile, the... 6th October 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Coal India strike raises risk of power outages Next week's three-day strike by workers at Coal India in dispute over wages raises the risk of power outages across the country, given that coal stocks are already at their lowest level this year... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bond index inclusion to boost pride more than inflows On its own, the inclusion of India’s government bonds into JP Morgan's GBI-EM Global Diversified Index is unlikely to make a great deal of difference to local yields. But the outlook for domestic and... 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly G20 “success”, iPhone 15, Q4 Outlook The G20 summit in New Delhi, which managed to exceed low expectations, reinforces our view that in a global economy that is fracturing into US and China-led blocs, India will lean towards the US and... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly G20 non-starter, RBI’s speedbumps This weekend’s G20 summit in New Delhi will undoubtedly be presented as a foreign policy triumph by the BJP as next year’s general election creeps onto the horizon. But for all the fanfare in India... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Food inflation threat is far from over We think vegetable price inflation will have remained elevated last month despite a moderation in prices over the past couple of weeks. What’s more, India recorded the driest August in more than a... 1st September 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Moon landing, BRICS expanding, GDP withstanding Headlines in India this week have been dominated by the successful Chandrayaan-3 mission to the south pole of the moon. Second to that was the BRICS summit, which concluded with an announcement that... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee hits an all-time low, new inflation forecasts The rupee dropped to an all-time low of 83.1/$ on Thursday and the depreciation this week may have been larger had the RBI not stepped up its FX intervention. The good news is that the central bank is... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI cautious, government aims to cool food price rise The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% as expected this week and maintained a hawkish tone amid the recent surge in food prices. And while several policy measures announced by the government this... 11th August 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Government capex boom, RBI to dial up hawkishness All eyes will be on the RBI's policy decision on Thursday, which has become less of a formality given the surge in food prices. We still think that the central bank will keep the repo rate on hold at... 4th August 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly BJP faces no-confidence vote, July inflation surge The no-confidence vote that has been triggered against Prime Minister Modi's BJP is highly unlikely to lead to the fall of the government given the BJP's sizeable parliamentary majority. But it may... 28th July 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly How will the rice export ban affect the economy? The partial ban on rice exports announced this week will have a small impact on India's trade balance and, similarly, it is unlikely to reduce inflation much either. The bigger concern for... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rice export ban looms, Foxconn U-turn As the El Niño threat mounts, speculation over a ban on rice exports is growing. A ban would probably help to keep a lid on domestic prices but have severe implications for the global market... 14th July 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Food inflation concerns are mounting The upside risks to our inflation forecasts for this year are building given the sharp rise in vegetable prices in July and El Ni ño related weather uncertainties. We aren't inclined to forecast... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Food price concerns come to the fore Concerns over a pick-up in food inflation have been growing in recent days given the spike in vegetable prices. The inflation picture could change very quickly given how volatile prices can be, but we... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Strengthening of India-US ties to boost manufacturing The sweeping agreements on trade and defence announced during Narendra Modi’s state visit to the US this week underline that India’s government and firms increasingly see their interests as favouring... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read