India Economics Weekly External position looking healthy, RBI to stand pat Data released this week show that India's current account deficit narrowed at the end of last year and, while it may widen over the coming months, we think it will remain well within the 2% of GDP... 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Election countdown, our new EM risk indicators We've entered the final few weeks before India's general election kicks off. All the signs point to another win for Prime Minister Modi's BJP but what really matters for the economy is whether the... 22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly #3 in 2026 The key takeaway from our Q2 Outlook is that, while growth is likely to slow a touch, India will remain a global outperformer over the coming years. That will set the stage for India to overtake Japan... 15th March 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee intervention, but not as you might think The rupee is outperforming almost all other EM currencies against the US dollar this year, leading to the usual speculation that the RBI is intervening to prop up the currency. There is evidence of... 8th March 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Shifting consumption patterns, world-beating growth The much-awaited Household Consumption Expenditure Survey for 2022-23 showed a shift in consumption patterns since the previous survey over a decade ago, underscoring the need to re-weight India’s CPI... 1st March 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI minutes highlight first signs of dissent The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s February policy meeting released this week show the first signs of dissent as MPC member Jayanth Varma argued that a cut to the repo rate would be prudent to show... 23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Farmer protests won’t lead to big fiscal giveaways Widescale protests by agriculture workers demanding higher prices for crops have dominated the headlines this week. But the BJP is unlikely to make any big fiscal concessions given that its political... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Paytm fallout, RBI unmoved, new Inflation Dashboard The RBI left rates on hold as expected this week, but much of the discussion at the press conference was on its clamp down on the activities of Paytm Payments Bank. We don’t think this is a major... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal and monetary restraint The Finance Ministry resisted the temptation to ramp up pre-election giveaways in the Interim Budget for FY24/25, and we think the RBI will show similar restraint next week by maintaining its hawkish... 2nd February 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to expect from the Interim Budget As it is a general election year, there will be at least some temptation from within the ruling BJP to announce big fiscal giveaways in the Interim Budget for FY24/25 next week. But following the BJP... 26th January 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russian oil is not flowing so smoothly anymore Increasing enforcement of the G7’s price cap on Russian oil could force India to buy crude from elsewhere at higher prices, but we doubt this will deal a major blow to the external position. Meanwhile... 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Air pollution threat, FDI outlook, CPI data Air quality levels in India have been the worst on record in recent weeks and the country's reliance on coal suggests that this will remain an economic headwind for a long time to come. That doesn't... 12th January 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Remittances to boost current account position Data from the World Bank show that India remained the world's largest recipient of remittances in 2023. While growth in remittances will slow a touch in 2024, they should remain an important source of... 5th January 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Three key questions for 2024 In our final Weekly of 2023 we explore three key themes for the coming year - when policy loosening will come onto the agenda, the economic impact of the general election, and the outlook for the... 22nd December 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Sensex surge, coal and COP28 The rally in Indian equities over the past month is likely to have left overall market capitalisation at almost US$4trn, and on the cusp of overtaking Hong Kong’s equity market to become the seventh... 15th December 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Election manoeuvres, hawkish RBI, Q1 Outlook The surge in the Sensex this week - to a fresh record high today - following the announcement of the BJP’s victories in three state elections is perhaps an indication that investors are confident that... 8th December 2023 · 4 mins read
