India Economics Weekly RBI still battling, fuel price cuts, Maharashtra protests The RBI’s highly-publicised board meeting passed without much incident this week, but this has by no means eased the tensions between the central bank and government, nor concerns over the RBI’s... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly What would be the impact if Governor Patel quit? Indian media has been awash with reports this week that RBI Governor Urjit Patel could quit his post at the Bank’s board meeting on Monday. We think this is unlikely but if he were to resign, local... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Central bank independence at stake Rising tension between the government and the RBI has dominated headlines this week, and also caused jitters in local markets. This comes as little surprise - after all, at the heart of the matter is... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Jump in bank lending growth has further to run Data released this week show that bank lending to the private sector grew at its fastest rate since 2014 in September, and there are good reasons to think that the sustained pick-up since the start of... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Share buybacks won’t prevent fiscal slippage In an effort to put its finances back onto the track set out in this year’s budget, the government is now considering ordering state-owned firms to initiate share buybacks, according to reports this... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly State elections come into focus The Electoral Commission confirmed this week that five state elections will take place before the end of 2018. As ever, these will have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level, and... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Sensex has further to fall, winter MSP hikes contained We think that the recent fall in Indian equities – down by another 4% this week – has further to run. Domestically, concerns over the scale of balance sheet problems in the shadow banking sector will... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Shadow banks in the spotlight After spending years in the background amid the well-documented struggles of state-owned banks, India’s “shadow” banking sector has been thrust into the spotlight over the past week following news... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Bank merger another step in right direction The government’s announcement this week that it will merge three state-run banks is another step in the right direction towards fixing the beleaguered banking system, following on from the... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Diaspora to the rescue? The continued weakness of the rupee has triggered speculation this week that policymakers are about to adopt special measures to shore up the currency. One possibility is the reintroduction of a... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI intervention, GDP doubts, Delhi protests The latest slide in the rupee appears finally to have jolted the RBI into action, with widespread reports of intervention today. We doubt that this will draw a line under the rupee’s decline... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Fuel price hikes, equities soar, demonetisation failure Fuel prices have risen to record highs in most of India’s major cities in recent weeks. This creates a political headache for the ruling BJP ahead of next year’s general election. However, the price... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly New forecasts for the rupee The rupee has stabilised over the past week or so, but it remains very close to an all-time low against the US dollar. With sentiment towards EMs unlikely to improve dramatically any time soon, we... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Modicare unlikely to have significant impact Prime Minister Modi confirmed this week that his nationwide healthcare insurance scheme will be rolled out in September. Better healthcare provision could bring several benefits, from both an economic... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Import duty hikes, monsoon update Recent hikes to import duties on various textiles products appear to be an attempt by Prime Minister Modi and the BJP to shore up popular support ahead of the general election in early 2019. But while... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal binge, RBI credibility Data released this week show a rapid expansion of the central government’s deficit in the early part of this fiscal year. This is a common occurrence, as revenues tend to get ramped up in the latter... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
